Projecting the Future Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Summary and Recommendations

Abstract

This article summarizes the findings of a Pediatrics supplement addressing the United States workforce for 15 pediatric subspecialties. It includes results from a microsimulation model projecting supply through 2040; growth is forecasted to be uneven across the subspecialties with worsening geographic maldistribution. Although each subspecialty has unique characteristics, commonalities include (1) the changing demographics and healthcare needs of children, including mental health; (2) poor outcomes for children experiencing adverse social drivers of health, including racism; and (3) dependence on other subspecialties. Common healthcare delivery challenges include (1) physician shortages for some subspecialties; (2) misalignment between locations of training programs and subspecialists and areas of projected child population growth; (3) tension between increasing subsubspecialization to address rare diseases and general subspecialty care; (4) the need to expand clinical reach through collaboration with other physicians and advanced practice providers; (5) the lack of parity between Medicare, which funds much of adult care, and Medicaid, which funds over half of pediatric subspecialty care; and (6) low compensation of pediatric subspecialists compared with adult subspecialists. Overall, subspecialists identified the lack of a central authority to monitor and inform child healthcare provided by pediatric subspecialists as a challenge. Future research on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and the children it serves will be necessary to ensure these children's needs are met. Together, these articles provide overarching and subspecialty-specific recommendations to improve training, recruitment, and retention of a diverse workforce, implement innovative models of care, drive policy changes, and advise future research.