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. 2024 Feb 6;88(3):25.
doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-02042-z.

Stochastic transmission in epidemiological models

Vinicius V L Albani #  1   2 , Jorge P Zubelli #  3
Affiliations

Stochastic transmission in epidemiological models

Vinicius V L Albani et al. J Math Biol. .

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the transmission coefficient in susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-like (SEIR-like) models evolves with time, presenting random patterns, and some stylized facts, such as mean-reversion and jumps. To address such observations we propose the use of jump-diffusion stochastic processes to parameterize the transmission coefficient in an SEIR-like model that accounts for death and time-dependent parameters. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis of the proposed model proving the existence and uniqueness of solutions as well as studying its asymptotic behavior. We also compare the proposed model with some variations possibly including jumps. The forecast performance of the considered models, using reported COVID-19 infections from New York City, is then tested in different scenarios. Despite the simplicity of the epidemiological model, by considering stochastic transmission, the forecasted scenarios were fairly accurate.

Keywords: Asymptotic behavior; COVID-19; Epidemiological models; Forecast performance; Stochastic processes.

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References

    1. Achterberg M, Prasse B, Ma L, Trajanovski S, Kitsak M, Van Mieghem P (2020) Comparing the accuracy of several network-based COVID-19 prediction algorithms. Int J Forecast
    1. Albani V, Loria J, Massad E, Zubelli JP (2021a) The impact of COVID-19 vaccination delay: a data-driven modelling analysis for Chicago and New York City. Vaccine 39(41):6088–6094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.08.098
    1. Albani V, Loria J, Massad E, Zubelli J (2021b) COVID-19 Underreporting and its impact on vaccination strategies. BMC Infect Dis 21:1111. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06780-7
    1. Albani V, Velho R, Zubelli J (2021c) Estimating, monitoring, and forecasting the Covid-19 epidemics: a spatio-temporal approach applied to NYC data. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88281-w
    1. Albani V, Albani R, Bobko N, Massad E, Zubelli J (2022a) On the role of financial support programs in mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 spread in Brazil. BMC Public Health 22(1):1–17

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