COVID-19 passenger screening to reduce travel risk and translocation of disease

Abstract

Aviation passenger screening has been used worldwide to mitigate the translocation risk of SARS-CoV-2. We present a model that evaluates factors in screening strategies used in air travel and assess their relative sensitivity and importance in identifying infectious passengers. We use adapted Monte Carlo simulations to produce hypothetical disease timelines for the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 for travelling passengers. Screening strategy factors assessed include having one or two RT-PCR and/or antigen tests prior to departure and/or post-arrival, and quarantine length and compliance upon arrival. One or more post-arrival tests and high quarantine compliance were the most important factors in reducing pathogen translocation. Screening that combines quarantine and post-arrival testing can shorten the length of quarantine for travelers, and variability and mean testing sensitivity in post-arrival RT-PCR and antigen tests decrease and increase with the greater time between the first and second post-arrival test, respectively. This study provides insight into the role various screening strategy factors have in preventing the translocation of infectious diseases and a flexible framework adaptable to other existing or emerging diseases. Such findings may help in public health policy and decision-making in present and future evidence-based practices for passenger screening and pandemic preparedness.

Keywords: COVID-19; RT-PCR; airport; aviation; disease transmission; pandemic; quarantine; screening.

Figure 1.

Reduction in point-prevalence from a destination with a high point-prevalence across different independent screening strategies ordered left to right by the least to greatest reduction in prevalence.

Figure 2.

Relationship between the standard deviation of testing sensitivity (a) and mean sensitivity (b) in dual testing scenarios (on the y-axis) for simulation when both tests were carried out on the day of arrival or post-arrival and the number of days between the first and second test on the x-axis.