Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence and Mortality in the USA by Sex, Age, and Race: A Nationwide Analysis of Two Decades

Abstract

Background and aims: While the incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are increasing, there are limited comprehensive data on demographic-specific incidence and mortality trends in the USA. We aimed to evaluate recent trends in HCC incidence and mortality among different demographic groups in the USA.

Methods: Age-adjusted HCC incidence rates were calculated from the Centers for Disease Control's United States Cancer Statistics database, which combines incidence data on newly diagnosed cancer cases and covers approximately 98% of the population in the USA. Additionally, age-adjusted HCC mortality rates were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics database, which offers comprehensive coverage spanning nearly 100% of deaths attributed to HCC in the USA. Rates were stratified by sex, age (older [≥55 years] and younger [<55 years] adults), race and ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, and Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native), and tumor stage at diagnosis (early and late). Annual and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using joinpoint regression. A sex-specific pairwise comparison was conducted.

Results: Between 2001 and 2020, there were 467,346 patients diagnosed with HCC (26.0% women), with increasing incidence in both sexes without significant difference (p=0.65). In younger adults (78,169 patients), the incidence decreased in men but not in women (AAPC difference=-2.39, p=0.002). This was seen in various racial and ethnic groups, mostly driven by early-stage tumors (AAPC difference=-2.65, p=0.02). There were 329,973 deaths attributed to HCC between 2000 and 2020 (28.4% women). In younger adults (43,093 deaths), mortality decreased in men at a greater rate than in women (AAPC difference=1.61, p=0.007). This was seen in various racial and ethnic groups, most notably in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives (AAPC difference=-4.51, p=0.01).

Conclusions: Nationwide USA data, covering nearly all HCC cases, show an increasing incidence and mortality over the last two decades. In younger adults, there was a decreasing incidence in men but not in women, due to early-stage tumors. Mortality improved in younger men at a greater rate than in women, especially in Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives. Future studies are warranted to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence and outcomes of HCC in demographic-specific populations, especially younger women.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Health disparity; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Incidence; Liver cancer; Mortality.

Fig. 1. Sex-specific trends and age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 population for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) among different age groups.

Fig. 2. Sex-specific trends and age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 population for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) among different age and racial/ethnic groups.

Fig. 3. Sex-specific trends and age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) among different age groups.

Fig. 4. Sex-specific trends and age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) among different age and racial/ethnic groups.