Projecting Omicron scenarios in the US while tracking population-level immunity

Abstract

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in policy, shifts in behavior, and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants spurred multiple waves of transmission. Accurate assessments of the changing risks were vital for ensuring adequate healthcare capacity, designing mitigation strategies, and communicating effectively with the public. Here, we introduce a model of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination that provided rapid and reliable projections as the BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 variants emerged and spread across the US. For example, our three-week ahead national projection of the early 2021 peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations was only one day later and 11.6-13.3% higher than the actual peak, while our projected peak in mortality was two days earlier and 0.22-4.7% higher than reported. We track population-level immunity from prior infections and vaccination in terms of the percent reduction in overall susceptibility relative to a completely naive population. As of October 1, 2022, we estimate that the US population had a 36.52% reduction in overall susceptibility to the BA.4/BA.5 variants, with 61.8%, 15.06%, and 23.54% of immunity attributable to infections, primary series vaccination, and booster vaccination, respectively. We retrospectively projected the potential impact of expanding booster coverage starting on July 15, 2022, and found that a five-fold increase in weekly boosting rates would have resulted in 70% of people over 65 vaccinated by Oct 10, 2022 and averted 25,000 (95% CI: 14,400-35,700) deaths during the BA.4/BA.5 surge. Our model provides coherent variables for tracking population-level immunity in the increasingly complex landscape of variants and vaccines and enables robust simulations of plausible scenarios for the emergence and mitigation of novel COVID variants.

Keywords: BA.1; BA.4 and BA.5; Booster vaccination; COVID-19; Immuno-epidemiological modeling; Scenario projections.