Epidemiology and Socioeconomic Impact of Pancreatic Cancer: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019

Abstract

Introduction: The aim of this study is to estimate the global burden of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: We reconstructed the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study results for pancreatic cancer across 204 countries and territories. Our study generated estimates for key disease burden indicators, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and cost. Linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm of age-standardized outcomes was used to calculate annual percent change.

Results: In 2019, there were a total of 530,296 incident and 442,101 prevalent cases of pancreatic cancer, resulting in 531,107 deaths and 11.5 million DALYs lost. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence of pancreatic cancer has increased from 5.22 (95% CI 4.97-5.40) to 6.57 (CI 6.00-7.09) per 100,000 people per year, and 4.1 (95% CI 3.95-4.26) to 5.4 (CI 4.96-5.87), respectively. This equated to 10 million (95% CI 9.5 to 10.4 million) incident cases of pancreatic cancer. The number of DALYs lost as a result of pancreatic cancer was 225 million years (95% CI 216-234 million years). Mortality from pancreatic cancer increased over the study period from 3.7 (95% CI 3.54-3.83) to 6.9 (95% CI 6.36-7.32). Incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality were higher in countries with a higher socio-demographic index.

Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer is rising around the world and is associated with a high economic burden. Programs aimed at reducing modifiable risk factors are needed.

Keywords: Digestive disease; Disparity; Epidemiology; Global burden; Pancreatic cancer.