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. 2024 Feb 7:14:1340286.
doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1340286. eCollection 2024.

A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients following ablation therapy

Honghai Zhang #  1 , Shugui Sheng #  2   3   4 , Wenying Qiao #  2   3   4   5 , Ming Han  2   3   4 , Ronghua Jin  2   3   4   5
Affiliations

A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients following ablation therapy

Honghai Zhang et al. Front Oncol. .

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to assess factors affecting the prognosis of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing ablation therapy and create a nomogram for predicting their 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS).

Methods: The research included 881 early-stage HCC patients treated at Beijing You'an Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, from 2014 to 2022. A nomogram was developed using independent prognostic factors identified by Lasso and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Its predictive performance was evaluated with concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: The study identified age, tumor number, tumor size, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), international normalized ratio (INR), and prealbumin (Palb) as independent prognostic risk factors. The nomogram achieved C-indices of 0.683 (primary cohort) and 0.652 (validation cohort), with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.776, 0.779, and 0.822 (3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS, primary cohort) and 0.658, 0.724, and 0.792 (validation cohort), indicating that the nomogram possessed strong discriminative ability. Calibration and DCA curves further confirmed the nomogram's predictive accuracy and clinical utility. The nomogram can effectively stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, particularly identifying high-risk patients.

Conclusions: The established nomogram in our study can provide precise prognostic information for HCC patients following ablation treatment and enable physicians to accurately identify high-risk individuals and facilitate timely intervention.

Keywords: Lasso regression; ablation; hepatocellular carcinoma; multivariate Cox regression; nomogram; overall survival.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Lasso regression analysis in the primary cohort. (A) Variation features of the coefficient of variables; (B) Determination of the optimal value of λ through cross-validation method.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Forest plot of the hazard ratio of the variables based on the multivariate Cox analysis in the primary cohort. HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Nomogram for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS). GGT, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase; Palb, prealbumin; INR, international normalized ratio.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the nomogram for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS) in the primary cohort. AUC, Area Under the Curve.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Calibration curves of the nomogram for predicting the 3- (A), 5- (B), and 8-year (C) overall survival (OS) in the primary cohort.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram for predicting the 3- (A), 5- (B), and 8-year (C) overall survival (OS) in the primary cohort.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Risk stratification for overall survival (OS) based on the nomogram risk scores in the primary cohort.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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