Long-term risks of respiratory diseases in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2: a longitudinal, population-based cohort study

Abstract

Background: In the post-pandemic era, growing apprehension exists regarding the potential sequelae of COVID-19. However, the risks of respiratory diseases following SARS-CoV-2 infection have not been comprehensively understood. This study aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 increases the long-term risk of respiratory illness in patients with COVID-19.

Methods: In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study, we built three distinct cohorts age 37-73 years using the UK Biobank database; a COVID-19 group diagnosed in medical records between January 30th, 2020 and October 30th, 2022, and two control groups, a contemporary control group and a historical control group, with cutoff dates of October 30th, 2022 and October 30th, 2019, respectively. The follow-up period of all three groups was 2.7 years (the median (IQR) follow-up time was 0.8 years). Respiratory outcomes diagnosed in medical records included common chronic pulmonary diseases (asthma, bronchiectasis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), interstitial lung disease (ILD), pulmonary vascular disease (PVD), and lung cancer. For the data analysis, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) along with their 95% CIs using Cox regression models, following the application of inverse probability weights (IPTW).

Findings: A total of 3 cohorts were included in this study; 112,311 individuals in the COVID-19 group with a mean age (±SDs) of 56.2 (8.1) years, 359,671 in the contemporary control group, and 370,979 in the historical control group. Compared with the contemporary control group, those infected with SARS-CoV-2 exhibited elevated risks for developing respiratory diseases. This includes asthma, with a HR of 1.49 and a 95% CI 1.28-1.74; bronchiectasis (1.30; 1.06-1.61); COPD (1.59; 1.41-1.81); ILD (1.81; 1.38-2.21); PVD (1.59; 1.39-1.82); and lung cancer (1.39; 1.13-1.71). With the severity of the acute phase of COVID-19, the risk of pre-described respiratory outcomes increases progressively. Besides, during the 24-months follow-up, we observed an increasing trend in the risks of asthma and bronchiectasis over time. Additionally, the HR of lung cancer for 0-6 month follow-up was 3.07 (CI 1.73-5.44), and the association of lung cancer with COVID-19 disease disappeared at 6-12 month follow-up (1.06; 0.43-2.64) and at 12-24 months (1.02; 0.45-2.34). Compared to those with one SARS-CoV-2 infection, reinfected patients were at a higher risk of asthma (3.0; 1.32-6.84), COPD (3.07; 1.42-6.65), ILD (3.61; 1.11-11.8), and lung cancer (3.20; 1.59-6.45). Similar findings were noted when comparing with a historical cohort serving as a control group, including asthma (1.31; 1.13-1.52); bronchiectasis (1.53; 1.23-1.89); COPD (1.41; 1.24-1.59); ILD (2.53; 2.05-3.13); PVD (2.30; 1.98-2.66); and lung cancer (2.23; 1.78-2.79).

Interpretation: Our research suggests that patients with COVID-19 may have an increased risk of developing respiratory diseases, and the risk increases with the severity of infection and reinfection. Even during the 24-month follow-up, the risk of asthma and bronchiectasis continued to increase. Hence, implementing appropriate follow-up strategies for these individuals is crucial to monitor and manage potential long-term respiratory health issues. Additionally, the increased risk in lung cancer in the COVID-19 individuals was probably due to the diagnostic tests conducted and incidental diagnoses.

Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China of China Regional Innovation and Development Joint Foundation; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Program for High-level Foreign Expert Introduction of China; Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Guangdong Province; Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation; Climbing Program of Introduced Talents and High-level Hospital Construction Project of Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital; VA Clinical Merit and ASGE clinical research funds.

Keywords: COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019); Epidemiological study; Respiratory diseases; SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2).

Fig. 1

Flow chart showing selection of cohort.

Fig. 2

Risks of incident respiratory outcomes in COVID-19 group during the post-acute phase compared with contemporary and historical controls. HR: hazard ratios; CI: confidence interval. Outcomes were ascertained 30 days after the COVID-19-positive test until the end of follow-up. Weighted HRs after IPTW and 95% CIs are presented.

Fig. 3

Cumulative hazards of incident respiratory outcomes in COVID-19 group compared with contemporary control group. (A) Asthma outcome; (B) Bronchiectasis outcome; (C) Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease outcome; (D) Interstitial lung disease outcome; (E) Pulmonary vascular disease outcome; (F) Lung cancer outcome. Outcomes were ascertained 30 days after the initial SARS -CoV-2 positive test result until end of follow-up. Shaded areas are 95% confidence intervals. P values were calculated with the use of the stratified log-rank test. Numbers of participants at risk across groups are also presented.