Heat Exposure, Preterm Birth, and the Role of Greenness in Australia

Abstract

Importance: Preterm birth (PTB) is associated with adverse health outcomes. The outcomes of heat exposure during pregnancy and the moderating association of greenness with PTB remain understudied.

Objective: To investigate associations between heat exposure, greenness, and PTB, as well as interactions between these factors.

Design, setting, and participants: Included in this cohort study were births occurring in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, between 2000 and 2020, retrieved from New South Wales Midwives Data Collection. Participants with incomplete or missing data on their residential address or those who resided outside of New South Wales during their pregnancy were excluded. Data were analyzed from March to October 2023.

Exposures: Greenness measured using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tree cover derived from satellite images. Daily extreme heat and nighttime extreme heat were defined as above the 95th percentile of community- and trimester-specific daily mean temperatures and nighttime temperatures.

Main outcomes and measures: Logistic regression models estimated the independent association of extreme heat with PTB, adjusting for individual- and area-level covariates, season of conception, and long-term trend. An interaction term between extreme heat exposure and greenness was included to explore potential modification. With a significant interaction observed, the number of preventable heat-associated PTBs that were associated with greenness was estimated.

Results: A total of 1 225 722 births (median [IQR] age, 39 [38-40] weeks; 631 005 male [51.5%]) were included in the analysis, including 63 144 PTBs (median [IQR] age, 35 [34-36] weeks; 34 822 male [55.1%]). Compared with those without heat exposure, exposure to daily extreme heat and nighttime extreme heat in the third trimester was associated with increased risks of PTB, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.61 (95% CI, 1.55-1.67) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.46-1.56]), respectively (PTB rates: exposed, 4615 of 61 338 [7.5%] vs unexposed, 56 440 of 1 162 295 [4.9%] for daily extreme heat and 4332 of 61 337 [7.1%] vs 56 723 of 1 162 296 [4.9%] for nighttime extreme heat). Disparities in associations between extreme heat exposure and PTB were observed, with lower odds of PTB among pregnant individuals residing in greener areas. The associations between extreme heat exposure and PTB could be mitigated significantly by higher greenness. Improving NDVI and tree cover could reduce daily extreme heat-associated PTB by 13.7% (95% CI, 2.3%-15.1%) and 20.9% (95% CI, 5.8%-31.5%), respectively. For nighttime extreme heat-associated PTB, reductions were 13.0% (0.2%-15.4%) and 17.2% (4.1%-27.0%), respectively.

Conclusions and relevance: Results of this large birth cohort study suggest that extreme heat exposure was adversely associated with PTB, with greenness playing a moderating role. Increasing greenness levels in residential communities could prevent heat-associated PTBs. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating heat mitigation strategies and improving green space in urban planning and public health interventions.

Figure 1.. Adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) of Extreme Heat Exposure, Specifically Daily Mean Temperature Extreme and Nighttime Temperature Extreme, on Preterm Birth in Each Trimester of Pregnancy

Models were adjusted for baby’s sex, maternal age at birth, previous pregnancies, pregnant individual’s country of birth, smoking during pregnancy, medical status during pregnancy, area level socioeconomic status, area level population density, conception season, and year of birth.

Figure 2.. Stratified Analysis by Area Built-Up Surface Fraction and Greenness Level

Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of extreme heat exposure in the third trimester, specifically extreme daily mean and nighttime temperatures, on preterm birth. Models were adjusted for baby’s sex, maternal age at birth, previous pregnancies, pregnant individual’s country of birth, smoking during pregnancy, medical status during pregnancy, area level socioeconomic status, area level population density, conception season, and year of birth.