A 30-year trend of dairy consumption and its determinants among income groups in Iranian households

Abstract

Introduction: Milk and dairy products provide essential nutrients and have the potential to prevent chronic diseases, thus reducing healthcare costs. However, there is a lack of consistent and updated data on dairy consumption trends in Iran. This study aims to analyze the trends in dairy consumption among Iranian households from 1991 to 2021, focusing on household-level determinants across different expense groups.

Methods: The study uses data from the Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey conducted annually from 1991 to 2021 to analyze households' dairy consumption. The data includes values and expenses of food and non-food items purchased in the previous month, as well as demographic characteristics of household members. The households were categorized into 10 deciles based on their gross expense. The econometric model used weighted mean per capita milk, yogurt, cheese, and total dairy consumption based on milk equivalent for each decile. The model takes into account changes in income, prices, household composition, education level, occupation, and residency area using panel data. Data preparation and model estimation were performed using RStudio and STATA17 software.

Results: Based on the findings, in 1991, per capita milk, yogurt, and cheese consumption were 26.77 kg, 16.63 kg, and 2.42 kg, respectively. By 2021, these figures changed to 22.68 kg, 11.06 kg, and 3.79 kg, reflecting a decrease in milk and yogurt consumption but an increase in cheese consumption. Family size was positively correlated with yogurt consumption and head of the household spouse's job score were positively correlated with milk, yogurt and cheese consumption. Also, the presence of under five-year-old children and older adults members (over the age of 60) in the household was inversely related with yogurt and cheese consumption. Female-headed households tended to purchase more cheese, while their milk purchase level was significantly lower. Residing in urban areas was negatively related to milk, while cheese and total dairy consumption was higher in urban areas.

Discussion: The findings highlight the importance of targeted dairy subsidy interventions and educational programs to improve dairy consumption in Iranian households, especially among vulnerable groups. This will require urging policymakers and food system stakeholders for effective strategies that address macro-level factors to promote dairy consumption.

Keywords: dairy consumption; determinants; household; panel analysis; per capita; policy; sanction.

Figure 1

Trend of weighted mean per capita consumption (Kg/Yr) of milk in households’ expenses tertiles during 1991–2021.

Figure 2

Trend of weighted mean per capita yogurt consumption (Kg/Yr) in tertiles of households’ expenses during 1991–2021.

Figure 3

Trend of weighted mean per capita cheese consumption (Kg/Yr) in tertiles of households’ expenses during 1991–2021.

Figure 4

Trend of the weighted mean of per capita dairy consumption based on milk equivalent (Kg/Yr) in tertiles of households’ expenses during 1991–2021.

Figure 5

Comparison of the trends of weighted mean per capita consumption of milk, yogurt, cheese and total dairy based on milk equivalent during 1991–2021.

Figure 6

Total dairy consumption trend based on milk equivalent in comparison with inflation trend and timeline of major dairy food system and contextual events.