Kidney replacement therapy: trends in incidence, treatment, and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke in a nationwide Scottish study

Abstract

Background and aims: Patients with kidney failure have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease compared with the general population. Whilst temporal trends of myocardial infarction and stroke are declining in the general population, these have not been evaluated in patients with kidney failure. This study aimed to describe national trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with kidney failure (i.e. on dialysis or with a kidney transplant) over a 20-year period, stratified by age and sex.

Methods: In this retrospective national data linkage study, all patients with kidney failure in Scotland (UK) receiving kidney replacement therapy between January 1996 and December 2016 were linked to national hospitalization, prescribing, and death records. The primary outcomes were the incidence of myocardial infarction and stroke, and subsequent cardiovascular death. Generalized additive models were constructed to estimate age-standardized, sex-stratified incidence rates and trends in cardiovascular and all-cause death.

Results: Amongst 16 050 patients with kidney failure [52 (SD 15) years; 41.5% women], there were 1992 [66 (SD 12) years; 34.8% women] and 996 [65 (SD 13) years; 45.1% women] incident myocardial infarctions and strokes, respectively, between January 1996 and December 2016. During this period, the age-standardized incidence of myocardial infarction per 100 000 decreased in men {from 4376 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3998-4785] to 1835 (95% CI 1692-1988)} and women [from 3268 (95% CI 2982-3593) to 1369 (95% CI 1257-1491)]. Similarly, the age-standardized incidence of stroke per 100 000 also decreased in men [from 1978 (95% CI 1795-2175) to 799 (95% CI 729-875)] and women [from 2234 (95% CI 2031-2468) to 903 (95% CI 824-990)]. Compared with the general population, the incidence of myocardial infarction was four- to eight-fold higher in patients with kidney failure, whilst for stroke it was two- to four-fold higher. The use of evidence-based cardioprotective treatment increased over the study period, and the predicted probability of cardiovascular death within 1 year of myocardial infarction for a 66-year-old patient with kidney failure (mean age of the cohort) fell in men (76.6% to 38.6%) and women (76.8% to 38.8%), and also decreased in both sexes following stroke (men, from 63.5% to 41.4%; women, from 67.6% to 45.8%).

Conclusions: The incidence of myocardial infarction and stroke has halved in patients with kidney failure over the past 20 years but remains significantly higher than in the general population. Despite improvements in treatment and outcomes, the prognosis of these patients following myocardial infarction and stroke remains poor.

Keywords: Dialysis; Epidemiology; Kidney replacement therapy; Kidney transplant; Myocardial infarction; Stroke.

Structured Graphical abstract

Schematic summarizing study methods, cohort, and key findings, including temporal trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with kidney failure in Scotland between 1996 and 2016. CHI, community health index; CV, cardiovascular.

Figure 1

Age-standardized incidence of myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with kidney failure in Scotland between 1996 and 2016, stratified by sex

Figure 2

Incidence rate ratios for myocardial infarction and stroke between 1996 and 2014, stratified by sex

Figure 3

Predicted probability of cardiovascular case fatality at 1 year incident myocardial infarction in men and women with kidney failure between 1996 and 2016