Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Mar 1;14(3):e11067.
doi: 10.1002/ece3.11067. eCollection 2024 Mar.

The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap

Jessica L Hill  1 , Matthew Grisnik  2   3 , Ryan J Hanscom  1   4 , Jeet Sukumaran  1 , Timothy E Higham  4 , Rulon W Clark  1
Affiliations

The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap

Jessica L Hill et al. Ecol Evol. .

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm-endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator-prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm-ectotherm pair typifying a predator-prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = -1.82%, 4.5 = -4.62%, 8.5 = -7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm-endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.

Keywords: climate change; ecological niche modeling; predator–prey interactions; rattlesnake; small mammal.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare they have no competing interests.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Range map of both species in our study (Crotalus viridis and Dipodomys ordii). Ranges also represent the study area for each ecological niche model created. Range map data sources: (https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/64339/12771847, https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/6691/115083268).
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Change in habitat suitability for Prairie rattlesnakes and Ord's kangaroo rats from the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH).
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Change in habitat suitability for prairie rattlesnakes under three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Change in habitat suitability for Ord's kangaroo rats under three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Boxplot showing the percent change in habitat suitability from paleoclimate scenarios to this day. Center lines represent the mean of the three GCMs.
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Boxplot showing the percent change in habitat suitability from present day to future climate change scenarios. Center lines represent the means of the three GCMs.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Allouche, O. , Tsoar, A. , & Kadmon, R. (2006). Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43(6), 1223–1232. 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x - DOI
    1. Almeida, A. M. , Martins, M. J. , Campagnolo, M. L. , Fernandez, P. , Albuquerque, T. , Gerassis, S. , Gonçalves, J. C. , & Ribeiro, M. M. (2022). Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1. 10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Balint, M. , Domisch, S. , Engelhardt, C. H. , Haase, P. , Lehrian, S. , Sauer, J. , Theissinger, K. , Pauls, S. U. , & Nowak, C. (2011). Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change. Nature Climate Change, 1, 313–318. 10.1038/nclimate1191 - DOI
    1. Baltensperger, A. P. , & Huettmann, F. (2015). Predicted shifts in small mammal distributions and biodiversity in the altered future environment of Alaska: An open access data and machine learning perspective. PLoS One, 10(7), e0132054. 10.1371/journal.pone.0132054 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Barbet‐Massin, M. , Jiguet, F. , Albert, C. H. , & Thuiller, W. (2012). Selecting psuedo‐absences for species distribution models: How, where, and how many? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3, 327–338. 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00172 - DOI

LinkOut - more resources