Comparison of Modified Shock Index and Shock Index for Predicting Massive Transfusion in Women with Primary Postpartum Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

BACKGROUND The modified shock index (MSI) is calculated as the ratio of heart rate (HR) to mean arterial pressure (MAP) and has been used to predict the need for massive transfusion (MT) in trauma patients. This retrospective study from a single center aimed to compare the MSI with the traditional shock index (SI) to predict the need for MT in 612 women diagnosed with primary postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) at the Emergency Department (ED) between January 2004 and August 2023. MATERIAL AND METHODS The patients were divided into the MT group and the non-MT group. The predictive power of MSI and SI was compared using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value were calculated. RESULTS Out of 612 patients, 105 (17.2%) required MT. The MT group had higher median values than the non-MT group for MSI (1.58 vs 1.07, P<0.001) and SI (1.22 vs 0.80, P<0.001). The AUC for MSI, with a value of 0.811 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.778-0.841), did not demonstrate a significant difference compared to the AUC for SI, which was 0.829 (95% CI, 0.797-0.858) (P=0.066). The optimal cutoff values for MSI and SI were 1.34 and 1.07, respectively. The specificity and PPV for MT were 77.1% and 40.2% for MSI, and 83.2% and 45.9% for SI. CONCLUSIONS Both MSI and SI were effective in predicting MT in patients with primary PPH. However, MSI did not demonstrate superior performance to SI.

Figure 1

Receiver operating characteristic curve of modified shock index and shock index for massive transfusion in primary postpartum hemorrhage. This figure was produced using MedCalc^® Statistical Software version 20.116 (MedCalc Software Ltd, Ostend, Belgium).