Evaluation of the public policy impacts on Monkeypox in Brazil

Abstract

Brazil ranked third in the number of Monkeypox infected worldwide in early September 2022 and eighth in multiple deaths. Brazilian Ministry of Health prepared a public policy to face the smallpox outbreak. This paper aims to analyze the governmental public policy' impacts on Monkeypox using survival analysis. The information in the database was collected from epidemiological bulletins on the official websites of the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO). The survival analysis with parametric statistical analysis, semiparametric with Cox regression, and nonparametric analysis were used. The inference of causality was perceived by the impact caused by the national public policy with the proportional reduction in the number of cases in the treatment group (Chi-sq = 117.783, p < 0.001), contrary to what was perceived in the control group, as well as survival about the time of the states that elaborated their plans based on what was made available by the government. The need to evaluate government projects should be within the scope of project management in Brazilian states and provide for more assertive decision-making in the fight against smallpox.

Keywords: Infection control; Monkeypox; Operational Research; Public health; Survival analysis.