Understanding decision curve analysis in clinical prediction model research

Abstract

Background: Many medical graduate students lack a thorough understanding of decision curve analysis (DCA), a valuable tool in clinical research for evaluating diagnostic models.

Methods: This article elucidates the concept and process of DCA through the lens of clinical research practices, exemplified by its application in diagnosing liver cancer using serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and radiomics indices. It covers the calculation of probability thresholds, computation of net benefits for each threshold, construction of decision curves, and comparison of decision curves from different models to identify the one offering the highest net benefit.

Results: The paper provides a detailed explanation of DCA, including the creation and comparison of decision curves, and discusses the relationship and differences between decision curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. It highlights the superiority of decision curves in supporting clinical decision-making processes.

Conclusion: By clarifying the concept of DCA and highlighting its benefits in clinical decisionmaking, this article has improved researchers' comprehension of how DCA is applied and interpreted, thereby enhancing the quality of research in the medical field.

Keywords: clinical decision-making; decision curve analysis; net benefit; threshold.