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. 2024 Mar 6:16:83-93.
doi: 10.2147/HIV.S448096. eCollection 2024.

An Assessment of Trends in HIV-1 Prevalence and Incidence and Spatio-Temporal Analyses of HIV-1 Recent Infection Among MSM During the Surveillance Period Between 2018 and 2022 in Sichuan, China

Hong Yang  1 , Maogang Chen  2 , Ying Hu  1 , Mengjiao Xu  1 , Yiping Li  1 , Lunhao Liu  1 , Dan Yuan  1 , Fengshun Yuan  1 , Ling Li  1 , Li Ye  1 , Chang Zhou  1 , Yan Zhang  1 , Shu Liang  1 , Ling Su  1
Affiliations

An Assessment of Trends in HIV-1 Prevalence and Incidence and Spatio-Temporal Analyses of HIV-1 Recent Infection Among MSM During the Surveillance Period Between 2018 and 2022 in Sichuan, China

Hong Yang et al. HIV AIDS (Auckl). .

Abstract

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) is one main type of high-risk activities facilitating HIV-1 transmission in Sichuan province. Previous works on HIV-1 incidence and prevalence among MSM only concentrated before 2018, the situation after that is unknown. In addition, the distribution of hot-spots related to current HIV-1 epidemic is also rarely known among MSM in Sichuan.

Objective: To update trends of HIV-1 prevalence and incidence and to visualize hot-spots of ongoing transmission in Sichuan province during surveillance period among MSM between 2018 and 2022.

Methods: Limiting Antigen Avidity assay was performed to detect recent infection within new HIV-1 diagnoses founded during surveillance period among MSM. The HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were calculated according to an extrapolation method proposed by publications and guidelines. Trend tests were performed using χ2 tests with linear-by-linear association. The spatial analysis was conducted with ArcGIS 10.7 to figure hot-spots of HIV-1 recent infections among MSM.

Results: Between 2018 and 2022, 16,697 individuals participated in HIV-1 MSM sentinel surveillance program, of which 449 samples (98.25%) were tested with LAg-Avidity EIA, and 230 samples were classified as recent infection. Respectively, the overall prevalence and incidence were 2.74% and 3.69% (95% CI: 3.21, 4.16) and both had significant declining trends (p < 0.001). Luzhou city had a highest HIV-1 incidence (10.74%, 95% CI: 8.39, 13.10) over the study period and was recognized as a hot-spot for recent HIV-1 infection among MSM.

Conclusion: During the surveillance period, both HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were declining. However, Luzhou city had an unusually high HIV-1 incidence and became an emerging hot-spot of recent HIV-1 infection among MSM. This finding suggested focused attention, cross-regional intervention strategies, and prevention programs are urgently required to curb the spread of ongoing transmission.

Keywords: HIV-1 recent infection; hot-spots; human immunodeficiency virus type 1; incidence; men who have sex with men.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest for this work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of MSM sentinel surveillance sites (n=10) in Sichuan, 2018–2022.Map created by ArcGIS 10.7 software (ESRI Inc., Redlands.CA.USA).
Figure 2
Figure 2
The trends of HIV-1 prevalence and incidence during the surveillance period between 2018 and 2022 among men who have sex with men in Sichuan, China.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Hot-spots of HIV-1 recent cases at city level by year among MSM between 2018 and 2022. (A) Sichuan province, 2018. (B) Sichuan province, 2019. (C) Sichuan province, 2020. (D) Sichuan province, 2021. (E) Sichuan province, 2022.
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