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. 2024 Mar 12:152:e48.
doi: 10.1017/S095026882400044X.

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019

Ying Han  1 , Yuansheng Li  1 , Shuyuan Wang  1 , Jialu Chen  1 , Junhui Zhang  1
Affiliations

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019

Ying Han et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

Keywords: Bayesian age–period–cohort model; acute hepatitis B virus infection; age–period–cohort model; joinpoint regression model; temporal trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors confirm that there are no potential competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Trends in (a) cases, (b) crude incidence rates (CIRs), and (c) age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute hepatitis B virus (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Relative risks (RRs) for the (a) age, (b) period, and (c) cohort effects on the crude incidence rates (CIRs) of acute hepatitis B virus (AHBV) infection in China.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Predictions for annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute hepatitis B virus (AHBV) infections in China until 2030 based on the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Predictions for the annual number of acute hepatitis B virus (AHBV) infection cases in China until 2030 based on the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model, stratified by gender.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Relevant policies and regulations for preventing and controlling hepatitis B virus infection in China from 1990 to 2019.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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