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. 2024 Aug;44(8):1896-1906.
doi: 10.1111/risa.14291. Epub 2024 Mar 15.

Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Xin Chen  1 , Fatema Kalyar  1 , Abrar Ahmad Chughtai  2 , Chandini Raina MacIntyre  1   3
Affiliations

Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Xin Chen et al. Risk Anal. 2024 Aug.

Abstract

The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.

Keywords: COVID‐19; SARS‐CoV‐2; origin; pandemic; risk analysis.

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