Show me the money! Associations between tree canopy and hospital costs in cities for cardiovascular disease events in a longitudinal cohort study of 110,134 participants

Abstract

Health benefits from urban greening are assumed to translate into reduced healthcare expenditure, yet few studies have tested this. A total of 110,134 participants in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study in the Australian cities of Sydney, Newcastle, or Wollongong were linked with hospital cost data for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (e.g., acute myocardial infarctions) up to 30 June 2018. Associations between percentages of total green space, tree canopy, and open grass within 1.6 km of participants homes and annual per person measured CVD-related hospital costs were analysed using generalised linear model (GLM) with gamma density as a component of a two-part mixture model, adjusting for confounders. Overall, 26,243 participants experienced a CVD-related hospitalisation. Incidence was lower among participants with 10 % more tree canopy (OR 0.98, 95 %CI 0.96, 0.99), but not with higher total green space or open grass percentages. Total costs of hospitalisations per year were lower with 10 % more tree canopy (means ratio 0.96, 95 %CI 0.95, 0.98), but also higher with 10 % more open grass (means ratio 1.04, 95 %CI 1.02, 1.06). It was estimated that raising tree canopy cover to 30 % or more for individuals with currently less than 10 % could lead to a within-sample annual saving per person of AU$ 193 overall and AU$ 569 for those who experienced one or more CVD-related hospital admissions. This projects to an estimated annual health sector cost reduction of AU$ 19.3 million per 100,000 individuals for whom local tree canopy cover is increased from less than 10 % to 30 % or higher. In conclusion, this longitudinal study is among the first to analyse measured healthcare cost data in relation to urban green space in general, and with differentiation between major types of greenery relevant to urban planning policies in cities around the world. In sum, this study advances an increasingly important and international focus of research by reporting on the lower burden of CVD and fewer associated hospitalisations stemming from upstream investments that protect and restore urban tree canopy, which not only translates into substantial reduced costs for the health sector, but also helps to create regenerative cities and flourishing communities.

Keywords: Death; Heart attacks; Hospital costs; Longitudinal study; Nature.