Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Mar 18;19(3):e0300635.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300635. eCollection 2024.

Contrary to expectation: The surface urban heat island intensity is increasing in population shrinking region while decreasing in population growing region-A comparative analysis from China

Luofu Liu  1 , Wei Zhang  2
Affiliations

Contrary to expectation: The surface urban heat island intensity is increasing in population shrinking region while decreasing in population growing region-A comparative analysis from China

Luofu Liu et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Exploring the complex relationship between population change and surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect has important practical significance for the ecological transformation development of shrinking cities in the context of the prevalence of urban shrinkage and the global climate change. This paper compares the population change and SUHI effect between population shrinking region (Northeast Region, NR) and population growing region (Yangtze River Delta, YRD) in China, and explores their differences in driving mechanisms, using GIS spatial analysis and Geodetector model. Our results indicated that there are significant differences in population changes and SUHI intensity between these two regions. About 72.22% of the cities in the NR were shrinking, while their SUHI intensities increased by an average of 1.69°C. On the contrary, the urban population in the YRD shows a linear growth trend, while their SUHI intensities decreased by 0.11°C on average. The results of bivariate Moran's I index also indicated that the spatial correlation between the urban population changes and the SUHI intensity changes are not significant in the above regions. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the primary drivers of SUHI variations between these two regions. In the NR, underlying surface changes, including the changes of green coverage and built-up areas, are the most important driving factors. However, atmospheric environment changes, such as carbon dioxide emission and sulfur dioxide emission, are the key drivers in the YRD. Northam's theory of three-stage urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are powerful to explain these differences.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Technical flow chart of the calculation and analysis of SUHI intensity.
Abbreviation. ISP: impervious surface parcel; LST: land surface temperature; SUHI: surface urban heat island.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Driving mechanism of socio-economic factors on SUHI effect.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Change trends of urban population in the Northeast region and the Yangtze River Delta.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Scatter plots of global bivariate Moran’s I indexes in two regions.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Explanatory power of each driver in two regions.
Notes: (a) Values in brackets are q statistics; (b) The full name of each indicator can be found in Table 1.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Results of the interaction detector.
Notes: (a) Values in brackets are q statistics; (b) The full name of each indicator can be found in Table 1.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Haase A, Rink D, Grossmann K, Bernt M, Mykhnenko V. Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environ Plann A. 2014;46(7):1519–34. doi: 10.1068/a46269 - DOI
    1. Hartt M. The diversity of North American shrinking cities. Urban Stud. 2018;55(13):2946–59. doi: 10.1177/0042098017730013 - DOI
    1. Lin D. Urban growth-oriented green accumulation: Ecological conservation planning in the Shenzhen DaPeng Peninsula in Southern China. Int J Env Res Pub He. 2019;16(1):104. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16010104 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wu K, Yao C. Exploring the association between shrinking cities and the loss of external investment: An intercity network analysis. Cities. 2021;119:103351. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2021.103351 - DOI
    1. Mykhnenko V, Turok I. East European Cities—Patterns of Growth and Decline, 1960–2005. Int Plan Stud. 2008;13(4):311–42. doi: 10.1080/13563470802518958 - DOI