Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Fig. 1. Difference in Population Size, by Age Group and Sex.

Absolute (A) and Relative (B) Differences in Population Size by Age Group and Sex between Baseline (with COVID-19) and Counterfactual (without COVID-19), 2020–2060. Notes. Data come from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the authors’ own estimates. Lines represent 95% confidence intervals and bars represent the median, estimated from n = 1000 stochastic projections.

Fig. 2. Difference in Population Size, by Year.

Absolute (A) and Relative (B) Difference in Population Size by Age and Sex for Years 2025 (left), 2040 (middle), 2060 (right). Notes. Data come from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the authors’ own estimates. Lines represent 95% confidence intervals and bars represent the median, estimated from n = 1000 stochastic projections.

Fig. 3. Difference in Population Size, by Demographic Factor.

Absolute (A) and Relative (B) Difference in Population Size by Age and Sex with only Mortality Change (left), only Fertility Change (middle), and only Migration Change (right), 2040. Notes. Data come from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the authors’ own estimates. Lines represent 95% confidence intervals and bars represent the median, estimated from n = 1000 stochastic projections.

Fig. 4. Change in Dependency Ratio.

Change in Dependency Ratios for Young-age (A, top), Old-age (B, middle), and Total (C, bottom). Notes. Data come from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the authors’ own estimates. Dependency ratios are calculated as the percentage of non-working population (<15 and > 64) to working-aged persons for each component separately and in total. Trendlines show 2020–2060, with dots at years 2025, 2040, 2060. Dashed line is equivalent to no change. Young-age = <15 / (15–64); Old-age = ≥65 / (15–64); Total = (<15 + ≥ 65) / (15–64). Estimates for “mortality” indicate the projected difference in baseline vs. counterfactual dependency ratio if only mortality had not changed during the pandemic, “fertility” if only fertility had not changed, and “migration” if only migration had not changed. Lines, dots, and reported values represent the median, estimated from n = 1000 stochastic projections.

Fig. 5. Change in proportion of population in each age group.

Notes. Data come from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the authors’ own estimates. Whiskers represent 95% confidence intervals and bars represent the median, estimated from n = 1000 stochastic projections.