Modelling the amount of inputs needed for methamphetamine manufacture in Afghanistan

Abstract

Background and aims: The use and manufacture of methamphetamine has increased in Afghanistan in recent years. Recent research and reports have pointed to the ephedra plant, which grows wildly, as a key source of ephedrine used in the manufacture of methamphetamine. This paper aimed to estimate the relative efficiencies and scale of inputs required to manufacture methamphetamine in Afghanistan.

Methods: Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals.

Results: For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7 t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed.

Conclusion: Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan's methamphetamine.

Keywords: Afghanistan; Monte Carlo simulation; ephedra; ephedrines; illegal drug manufacture; methamphetamine.