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. 2024 Jun 7;34(3):566-571.
doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckae050.

Changing smoking habits and the occurrence of lung cancer in Sweden-a population analysis

Bengt Järvholm  1 , Linnea Hedman  1 , Maréne Landström  2 , Per Liv  1 , Alex Burdorf  3 , Kjell Torén  4
Affiliations

Changing smoking habits and the occurrence of lung cancer in Sweden-a population analysis

Bengt Järvholm et al. Eur J Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: The objective is to estimate the importance of the decrease of smoking habits in Sweden for the occurrence of lung cancer.

Methods: The change in smoking habits in the general population was retrieved from surveys and on taxation of sale of cigarettes. We used data from the Swedish Cancer Register on incidence of lung cancer between 1970 and 2021, stratified for sex, age and cell type, and compared the occurrence overtime in ages between 40 and 84 years.

Results: The sale of cigarettes peaked in 1980 to 1800 cigarettes per person and decreased to 600 per person in 2021. The change in incidence rates of squamous cell cancer and other cell types varied over time, sex, and age in a pattern that partly seems to be explained by change in the prevalence of daily smokers. The incidence of adenocarcinoma was similar in men and women 1970-2021 and increased, e.g. for women and men 75-79 years of age from around 20 cases in early 1970s to around 120 cases per 100 000 person-years in the 2020s.

Conclusions: Our data indicate that the risk of lung cancer several years after smoking cessation is less favourable than previously studies have indicated. There is a similar increase in the incidence of adenocarcinoma in men and women which is hard to explain only with changing smoking habits. The change from non-filter to filter cigarettes in the 1960s-1970s may be a contributing factor.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Average number of cigarettes sold per year and person over 15 years of age in Sweden between 1940 and 2021.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Incidence rates of all types of lung cancer, squamous cell cancer, adenocarcinoma and other cell types according to age 1970–2021 (cases per 100 000 persons and year).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Incidence rates for lung cancer according to age, sex and time (cases/100 000 person-years). Notice the different scales on the vertical axes (incidence rates).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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