Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Jan 4;51(5):826-844.
doi: 10.1080/02664763.2022.2163229. eCollection 2024.

A new flexible regression model with application to recovery probability Covid-19 patients

F Prataviera  1 , E M Hashimoto  2 , E M M Ortega  3 , G M Cordeiro  4 , V G Cancho  5 , R Vila  6
Affiliations

A new flexible regression model with application to recovery probability Covid-19 patients

F Prataviera et al. J Appl Stat. .

Abstract

The aim of this study is to propose a generalized odd log-logistic Maxwell mixture model to analyze the effect of gender and age groups on lifetimes and on the recovery probabilities of Chinese individuals with COVID-19. We add new properties of the generalized Maxwell model. The coefficients of the regression and the recovered fraction are estimated by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Further, some simulation studies are done to compare the regressions for different scenarios. Model-checking techniques based on the quantile residuals are addressed. The estimated survival functions for the patients are reported by age range and sex. The simulation study showed that mean squared errors decay toward zero and the average estimates converge to the true parameters when sample size increases. According to the fitted model, there is a significant difference only in the age group on the lifetime of individuals with COVID-19. Women have higher probability of recovering than men and individuals aged ≥60 years have lower recovered probabilities than those who aged <60 years. The findings suggest that the proposed model could be a good alternative to analyze censored lifetime of individuals with COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Censored data; Maxwell distribution; mixture model; quantile residuals.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Plots for COVID-19 data: (a) empirical survival function and (b) empirical hazard function.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Plots of Kaplan–Meier survival functions for COVID-19 data: (a) by age group, (b) by gender, (c) by age group versus gender.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Plots of some fitted distributions to COVID-19 data: (a) empirical and estimated survival functions and (b) empirical and estimated hazard functions.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Plots for the EMax mixture regression fitted to coronavirus data under structure M3: (a) Qrs versus index, (b) Qq-plot for qrs, and (c) worm plot for qrs.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Plots of Kaplan–Meier and estimated survival functions from the EMax regression: (a) by gender and (b) by age group.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Plots of Kaplan–Meier and estimated survival function from the EMax regression stratified by gender and age group.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
(a) The posterior distribution of the recovered fraction patients and (b) recovered probability for four patients.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Ahsanullah M. and Alzaatreh A., Some characterizations of the log-logistic distribution, Stoch. Qual. Control 33 (2018), pp. 23–29.
    1. Alkhouli M., Nanjundappa A., Annie F., Bates M.C., and Bhatt D.L., Sex differences in COVID-19 case fatality rate: Insights from a multinational registry, Mayo Clin. Proc. 29 (2020), pp. 1–22. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Al-Rousan N. and Al-Najjar H., Data analysis of coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea based on recovered and death cases, J. Med. Virol. 92 (2020), pp. 1603–1608. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Buuren S.V. and Fredriks M., Worm plot: A simple diagnostic device for modelling growth reference curves, Stat. Med. 20 (2001), pp. 1259–1277. - PubMed
    1. Cancho V.G., Rodrigues J., and de Castro M., A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: A Bayesian approach, J. Appl. Stat. 38 (2011), pp. 57–70.

LinkOut - more resources