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. 2024 Mar 15;7(3):497-505.
doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.006.

China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases

Jie Ban  1   2   3 , Jing Cheng  4 , Can Zhang  1   2 , Kailai Lu  1   2 , Zhen Zhou  1   2 , Zhao Liu  5 , Yidan Chen  6 , Can Wang  6 , Wenjia Cai  4 , Peng Gong  7 , Yong Luo  4 , Dan Tong  4 , Jianlin Hu  3 , Xinbiao Guo  8 , Junwei Hao  9   10   11 , Tiantian Li  1   2
Affiliations

China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases

Jie Ban et al. One Earth. .

Abstract

China's carbon-neutral target could have benefits for ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-associated mortality. Although previous studies have researched such benefits, the potential impact on cardiovascular disease incidence burden is yet to be investigated thoroughly. Here, we first estimate the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and the incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) via a case-crossover study before projecting future changes in short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence across China from 2025 to 2060 under three different emission scenarios. We find that, compared to the 2015-2020 baseline, average PM2.5 concentrations nationwide in 2060 under SSP119 (an approximation of a carbon-neutral scenario) are projected to decrease by 81.07%. The short-term PM2.5-related excess incidence of stroke and CHD is projected to be reduced to 3,352 cases (95% confidence interval: 939, 5,738)-compared with 34,485 cases under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP245)-and is expected to be accompanied by a 95% reduction in the related economic burden. China's carbon-neutral policies are likely to bring health benefits for cardiovascular disease by reducing short-term PM2.5-related incidence burden.

Keywords: ambient PM2.5; carbon neutral; cardiovascular disease; health benefit; incidence; projection; short-term exposure.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
Percent change in incidence risk associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 on lag0 Error bars indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the estimated percent change.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spatial distribution of annual average PM2.5 concentration at baseline and in 2030 and 2060 under different SSP scenarios
Figure 3
Figure 3
Annual average excess incidence related to short-term PM2.5 exposure at baseline and in future years under the combined scenarios of SSP2-S2 population and three SSPs
Figure 4
Figure 4
Changes in the excess incidence related to short-term PM2.5 exposure in future years under the combined scenarios of SSP2 (S1, S2, S3) population and three SSPs, as compared to the baseline
Figure 5
Figure 5
Spatial distribution of the excess incidence related to short-term PM2.5 exposure at baseline and in 2030 and 2060 under the combined scenarios of SSP2-S2 population and three SSPs
Figure 6
Figure 6
Contribution rate of emission and population in changes of excess incidence using medium population under SSP scenarios
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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