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Meta-Analysis
. 2024 Apr 3;15(1):2885.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47064-3.

Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis

Katharina Alter #  1 , Juliette Jacquemont #  2   3 , Joachim Claudet  3 , María E Lattuca  4 , María E Barrantes  5 , Stefano Marras  6 , Patricio H Manríquez  7   8 , Claudio P González  7   8 , Daniel A Fernández  4   5 , Myron A Peck  9   10 , Carlo Cattano  11   12 , Marco Milazzo  11   13 , Felix C Mark  14 , Paolo Domenici  6   11   15
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis

Katharina Alter et al. Nat Commun. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Conflicting results remain on the impacts of climate change on marine organisms, hindering our capacity to predict the future state of marine ecosystems. To account for species-specific responses and for the ambiguous relation of most metrics to fitness, we develop a meta-analytical approach based on the deviation of responses from reference values (absolute change) to complement meta-analyses of directional (relative) changes in responses. Using this approach, we evaluate responses of fish and invertebrates to warming and acidification. We find that climate drivers induce directional changes in calcification, survival, and metabolism, and significant deviations in twice as many biological responses, including physiology, reproduction, behavior, and development. Widespread deviations of responses are detected even under moderate intensity levels of warming and acidification, while directional changes are mostly limited to more severe intensity levels. Because such deviations may result in ecological shifts impacting ecosystem structures and processes, our results suggest that climate change will likely have stronger impacts than those previously predicted based on directional changes alone.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Results of previous meta-analyses on the effects of climate drivers on biological responses of marine animals.
Different colored tiles indicate that a given meta-analysis reported increases (blue), decreases (magenta), conflicting results (i.e., different effects depending on variables tested that were not pooled in the study; orange), no effect (gray) or did not evaluate (white) a given biological response of invertebrates and fish to ocean acidification, ocean warming, and their combination. Data were assessed at the 95% confidence interval level. Fish and mollusc icons are available on the noun project website: https://thenounproject.com/icon/fish-1464319/ and https://thenounproject.com/icon/mollusk-5552214, respectively.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Diagram showcasing differences between directional changes and deviations.
Antagonistic responses at the experiment level can cancel out when computing a mean directional change (lnRR). By contrast, significant responses are revealed when computing mean deviation (abs(lnRR)). CI confidence interval, n sample size.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Effect of metric’s increase on fitness and number of metrics per biological response category.
Magenta, blue, and gray fillings indicate metrics for which an increase leads to a negative, positive, or ambiguous effect on fitness, respectively. The number of metrics per biological response category included in our analysis is indicated next to each bar. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Directional effects of climate drivers on biological responses of marine animals.
Directional effect (lnRR) of ocean warming (OW, circles), ocean acidification (OA, pCO2, squares), and their combination (OW + OA, diamonds) on the biological responses of invertebrates (orange) and fish (green). Significant deviations are denoted by filled symbols (resp., open symbols for non-significant symbols). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals associated with the mean effect size and numbers indicate sample sizes. Source data are provided as a Source Data file. Fish and mollusc icons are available on the noun project website: https://thenounproject.com/icon/fish-1464319/ and https://thenounproject.com/icon/mollusk-5552214, respectively.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Directional effects of climate drivers by intensity level.
a Directional effects (lnRR) of ocean warming (OW), ocean acidification (OA), and their combination (OW + OA) on biological responses of invertebrates (left) and fish (right) according to the intensity level considered (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 6 (R6), RCP 8.5 (R8), and extreme (ex)). The magnitude of effects is represented by a blue (increase) to magenta (decrease) color scale. Light gray tiles indicate an absence of data. Asterisks indicate significant effects. b Proportion of biological responses for which a significant increase (blue) or decrease (magenta) was found for each climate driver and intensity level. Source data are provided as a Source Data file. Fish and mollusc icons are available on the noun project website: https://thenounproject.com/icon/fish-1464319/ and https://thenounproject.com/icon/mollusk-5552214, respectively.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6. Deviation effects of climate drivers on biological responses of marine animals.
Deviation (abs(lnRR)) of biological responses of invertebrates (orange) and fish (green) to ocean warming (OW, circles), ocean acidification (OA, squares), and their combination (OW + OA, diamonds). Significant deviations are denoted by filled symbols (resp., open symbols for non-significant symbols). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals associated with the mean effect size and numbers indicate sample sizes. Source data are provided as a Source Data file. Fish and mollusc icons are available on the noun project website: https://thenounproject.com/icon/fish-1464319/ and https://thenounproject.com/icon/mollusk-5552214, respectively.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7. Directional and deviational effects of climate drivers.
a Effects of ocean warming (OW), ocean acidification (OA), and their combination (OW + OA), on biological responses of invertebrates (left, orange) and fish (right, green) according to the intensity level considered (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 6 (R6), RCP 8.5 (R8), or extreme (ex)). Colors indicate significant directional and deviational effects (darkest colored tiles), significant deviational effects only (light colored tiles), or no significant effects (white tiles). The absence of data is indicated by gray tiles. b Proportion of biological responses (%) for which significant directional and deviational effects (darkest colored tiles), significant deviational effects only (light colored tiles), or no significant effects (white tiles) were found under each intensity level for invertebrates (left, orange) and fish (right, green). Note that all significant directional effects imply significant deviations. Source data are provided as a Source Data file. Fish and mollusc icons are available on the noun project website: https://thenounproject.com/icon/fish-1464319/ and https://thenounproject.com/icon/mollusk-5552214, respectively.
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