Factors affecting survival in patients presenting with synchronous hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer: a clinical and computer analysis

Abstract

A review of 90 patients presenting in Leeds over the period 1976-80 with synchronous hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer has been undertaken. The median survival for the group was 10.3 months (range 1-48 months). A multivariate analysis identified factors in the history and examination of the patient, results of biochemical and haematological investigations and characteristics of both the primary and secondary tumour, which influenced survival. Recognition of these factors allowed both a clinical scoring index and computer survival model to be constructed. When applied to the group as a whole both were reasonably accurate at predicting survival (62 per cent for the survival model and 66 per cent for the scoring index). However, the computer model correctly identified 80 per cent of the 'long-term' survivors (greater than 12 months from the time of diagnosis). It is concluded that many trials of therapy for hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer have failed to consider the natural history of the disease and the identification of prognostic indices should allow for adequate stratification within the treatment arms of any future study.