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. 2024 Apr 6;14(1):8092.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-58629-z.

Trend and projection of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Iran from 2001 to 2030

Farshad Farzadfar  1 , Moein Yousefi  2 , Ali Jafari-Khounigh  3 , Zahra Khorrami  4 , AliAkbar Haghdoost  5 , Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani  6
Affiliations

Trend and projection of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Iran from 2001 to 2030

Farshad Farzadfar et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be - 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were - 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of - 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001-2016 were - 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be - 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors.

Keywords: Iran; Non-communicable diseases; Projection; Risk factors; Trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trend and projection of age standardized prevalence of risk factors by sex from 2001 to 2030. (a) smoking, (b) physical inactivity, (c) mean of salt intake, (d) hypertension, (e) overweight and obesity, (f) Diabetes (created using R software version 4.3.2).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Distribution of age standardized prevalence of risk factors at subnational level in 2001, 2015, and 2030 by sex. (a) smoking, (b) physical inactivity, (c) mean of salt intake, (d) hypertension, (e) overweight and obesity, (f) diabetes (created using R software version 4.3.2).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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