PTSD, depression, and anxiety after the October 7, 2023 attack in Israel: a nationwide prospective study

Abstract

Background: The magnitude of the Oct 7, 2023 attack in southern Israel was without precedent. More than 1300 civilians were murdered, and 240 civilians were kidnapped and taken hostage. In this national cohort study, for which baseline outcome data were established before the attacks, a prospective assessment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) was conducted one month after the attack.

Methods: A representative sample of 710 Israeli adults (362 female, 51.1%), Jews (557, 79.9%) and Arabs (153, 20.1%), aged 18-85 years (mean = 41.01, SD = 13.72) completed the study at two timepoints: T1, on Aug 20-30, 2023 (6-7 weeks before the attack) and T2, on Nov 9-19, 2023 (5-6 weeks after the attack). 30 (4.2%) of the 710 participants had direct exposure to the attack, and 131 (18.5%) had loved ones who were murdered, kidnapped, or injured during the attack.

Findings: Probable PTSD prevalence almost doubled from 16.2% at T1 to 29.8% at T2 (p < 0.0001), with the prevalence of probable GAD and depression also increasing from 24.9% at T1 to 42.7% at T2, and from 31.3% at T1 to 44.8% at T2, respectively. Direct exposure to the attack was found to contribute to probable PTSD (OR = 3.15, 95% CI = 1.48-6.65) and probable depression (OR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.02-4.87) at T2.

Interpretation: Our study suggests a broad and significant impact of the Oct 7, 2023 attack on the mental health of the Israeli population. The findings underscore the need to provide rapid, nationwide assessments and triage for interventions to address the mental health needs of Jewish and Arab citizens.

Funding: Not applicable.

Keywords: Anxiety; Depression; Exposure; PTSD; Terrorist attack.

Fig. 1

Probable prevalence of PTSD, depression, and GAD before and after the October 7 terror attack (N = 710). Note: ∗∗∗p < 0.0001. PTSD = probable PTSD diagnosis by the International Trauma Questionnaire (ITQ); Depression = probable depression diagnosis by the Patient Health Questionnaire-2(PHQ-2); GAD = probable generalized anxiety disorder diagnosis by the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2 (GAD-2). Lines represent 95% confidence intervals (CIs).