Genetic predisposition for negative affect predicts mental health burden during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was accompanied by an increase in mental health challenges including depression, stress, loneliness, and anxiety. Common genetic variants can contribute to the risk for psychiatric disorders and may present a risk factor in times of crises. However, it is unclear to what extent polygenic risk played a role in the mental health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate whether polygenic scores (PGSs) for mental health-related traits can distinguish between four resilience-vulnerability trajectories identified during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns in 2020/21. We used multinomial regression in a genotyped subsample (n = 1316) of the CovSocial project. The most resilient trajectory characterized by the lowest mental health burden and the highest recovery rates served as the reference group. Compared to this most resilient trajectory, a higher value on the PGS for the well-being spectrum decreased the odds for individuals to be in one of the more vulnerable trajectories (adjusted R-square = 0.3%). Conversely, a higher value on the PGS for neuroticism increased the odds for individuals to be in one of the more vulnerable trajectories (adjusted R-square = 0.2%). Latent change in mental health burden extracted from the resilience-vulnerability trajectories was not associated with any PGS. Although our findings support an influence of PGS on mental health during COVID-19, the small added explained variance suggests limited utility of such genetic markers for the identification of vulnerable individuals in the general population.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mental health; Pandemic; Polygenic risk scores; Resilience; Vulnerability.

Fig. 1

Resilience-vulnerability trajectories in the analytic sample

Fig. 2

Association between well-being PGS and resilience-vulnerability trajectory. Boxplots of the well-being PGS (a) and neuroticism PGS (b) are shown by resilience-vulnerability trajectory from the most vulnerable (left) to the most resilient (right) trajectory. Individuals with a higher value on the well-being PGS or a lower value on the General neuroticism PGS were more likely to be in the most resilient group compared to all other groups. PGS Polygenic Score, WBS well-being spectrum, NEU neuroticism. * < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001