"Trend" Statement Use in the Orthopaedic Literature

Abstract

Introduction: For research to effectively guide clinical decision making, appropriate interpretation of data is paramount. The P -value is a useful tool for guiding the interpretation of data. However, despite its utility, the P -value is not without limitations. Of particular concern is the use of "trend statements" to describe non-statistically significant findings, a practice which introduces subjectivity and variability into data interpretation and can lead to the drawing of undue conclusions.

Methods: An audit of original research articles published from January 2022 to December 2022 in four high-impact orthopaedic journals was conducted. The selected journals were queried to identify instances in which a non-statistically significant result was labeled as a "trend." The use of trend statements and associated information was recorded and analyzed.

Results: One thousand two hundred sixty articles were included in the analysis. 81 articles (6.4%) included a trend statement to describe a non-statistically significant result. Only two articles (2.5%) formally defined what constituted a trend. In 28.8% of cases, the associated P -value was > 0.10.

Discussion: Trend statements are used to describe non-statistically significant findings with moderate frequency in the orthopaedic literature. Given the potentially misleading effects of trend statements, efforts should be made to mitigate their use. If trend statements are to be used, attention should be paid to defining what constitutes a "trend", explicitly acknowledging the lack of statistical significance of the finding to which the trend statement refers, and avoiding drawing undue conclusions from non-statistically significant data.