Multidimensional Frailty Instruments Can Predict Acute Exacerbations Within One Year in Patients with Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is closely associated with frailty, and prevention of acute exacerbations is important for disease management. Moreover, COPD patients with frailty experience a higher risk of acute exacerbations. However, the frailty instruments that can better predict acute exacerbations remain unclear.

Purpose: (1) To explore the factors influencing frailty and acute exacerbations in stable COPD patients, and (2) quantify the ability of multidimensional frailty instruments to predict acute exacerbations within 1 year.

Patients and methods: In this retrospective longitudinal study, stable COPD patients were recruited from the outpatient department of Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital from July 2022 to June 2023. COPD patients reviewed their frailty one year ago and their acute exacerbations within one year using face-to-face interviews with a self-developed frailty questionnaire. Frailty status was assessed using the Frailty Index (FI), frailty questionnaire (FRAIL), and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). One-way logistic regression was used to explore the factors influencing frailty and acute exacerbations. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a prediction model for acute exacerbations, and the accuracy of the three frailty instruments was compared by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: A total of 120 individuals were included. Frailty incidence estimates using FI, FRAIL, and CFS were 23.3%, 11.7%, and 15.8%, respectively. The three frailty instruments showed consistency in COPD assessments (P<0.05). After adjusting for covariates, frailty reflected by the FI and CFS score remained an independent risk factor for acute exacerbations. The CFS score was the best predictor of acute exacerbations (AUC, 0.764 (0.663-0.866); sensitivity, 57.9%; specificity, 80.0%). Moreover, the combination of CFS plus FRAIL scores was a better predictor of acute exacerbations (AUC, 0.792 (0.693-0.891); sensitivity, 86.3%; specificity, 60.0%).

Conclusion: Multidimensional frailty assessments could improve the identification of COPD patients at high risk of acute exacerbations and facilitate targeted interventions to reduce acute exacerbations in these patients.

Keywords: acute exacerbations; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; frailty.

Figure 1

Mosaic plot representing the frequency of frailty status when evaluated by (A) FI and FRAIL, (B) FI and CFS, and (C) FRAIL and CFS.

Figure 2

Distribution of the CAT and mMRC scores in the frailty statuses identified using the three frailty instruments.

Figure 3

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for FI, FRAIL, and CFS predicts 1‑year acute exacerbations.