Re-evaluating efficacy of vaccines against highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in poultry: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus since 2021 necessitates a re-evaluation of the role of vaccination in controlling HPAI outbreaks among poultry, which has been controversial because of the concern of silent spread with viral mutation and spillover to human. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed all existing data from experimental challenge trials to assess the efficacy of HPAI vaccines against mortality in specific pathogen free (SPF) chickens, with evaluation of the certainty of evidence (CoE) using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Out of 223 screened publications, 46 trials met our eligibility criteria. Inactivated vaccines showed an efficacy of 95% (risk ratio [RR] = 5% [95% CI: 1% to 17%], I² = 0%, CoE high) against homologous strains and an efficacy of 78% (RR = 22% [95% CI: 14% to 37%], I² = 18%, CoE high) against heterologous strains (test for subgroup difference p = 0.02). Live recombinant vaccines exhibited the highest efficacy at 97% (RR = 3% [95% CI: 1% to 13%], I² = 0%, CoE high). Inactivated recombinant vaccines had an overall efficacy of 90% (RR = 10% [95% CI: 6% to 16%], I² = 47%, CoE high). Commercial vaccines showed an overall efficacy of 91% (RR = 9% [95% CI: 5% to 17%], I² = 23%, CoE high), with 96% efficacy (RR = 4% [95% CI: 1% to 21%], I² = 0%, CoE high) against homologous strains and 90% efficacy (RR = 10% [95% CI: 5% to 20%], I² = 31%, CoE moderate) against heterologous strains. Our systematic review offers an updated and unbiased assessment of vaccine efficacy against HPAI-related mortality, providing timely and crucial information for re-evaluating the role of vaccination in poultry avian influenza control policy amist the global HPAI outbreak post-2021.

Keywords: HPAI; Highly pathogenic avian influenza; Meta-analysis; Vaccine; Vaccine efficacy.

Fig. 1

PRISMA flow diagram. (SPF: Specific Pathogen Free; LPAI: Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza).

Fig. 2

Forest plot of inactivated vaccines illustrating efficacy in mortality across different stains. (“clade = homogenous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to the same clade, and “clade = heterologous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to different clades.)

Fig. 3

Forest plot of live recombinant vaccines illustrating efficacy in reducing mortality.

Fig. 4

Forest plot of inactivated recombinant vaccines illustrating efficacy in reducing mortality across different strains. (“clade = homogenous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to the same clade, and “clade = heterologous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to different clades.)

Fig. 5

Forest plot of commercial vaccines illustrating efficacy in reducing mortality across different stains. (“clade = homogenous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to the same clade, and “clade = heterologous” meant the vaccine seed and the challenging strain belonged to different clades.)