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. 2024 Dec;53(12):1737-1751.
doi: 10.1007/s13280-024-02002-x. Epub 2024 Apr 10.

Trajectories of socio-ecological systems: A case study in the tropical Andes

Linda Berrio-Giraldo  1 , Clara Villegas-Palacio  2 , Santiago Arango-Aramburo  3 , Lina Berrouet  4
Affiliations

Trajectories of socio-ecological systems: A case study in the tropical Andes

Linda Berrio-Giraldo et al. Ambio. 2024 Dec.

Abstract

Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.

Keywords: Ecosystem services; Policy simulation; Scenario simulation; Socio-ecological system; System dynamics.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Location and analysis areas for the RGB, Colombia. Adapted from Machado et al. (2019)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Percentage change in forest and pastureland cover in 2040 for scenarios compared to Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. The climate change cases 1 and 2, and without intrinsic motivation scenarios were considered in this figure
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Implications of the climate change scenario on the water available for use
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Percentage change in the forest and pastureland covers in 2040 for the policy options compared to BAU. Free Trade Agreements (FTA), Low and High Institutional Capacities, and Payment of Ecosystem Services (PES) were considered in this figure
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Forest land cover trajectories under the combinations of scenarios and policy options (2015–2040). The square located in the figure represents the points that were considered for the validation of the model concerning land cover
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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