Transportation as a Disease Vector in COVID-19: Border Mobility and Disease Spread

Abstract

More than a year after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization, the U.S.A. and Mexico rank first and fourth, respectively, with regard to the number of deaths. From March 2020, nonessential travelers were not allowed to cross the border into the U.S.A. from Mexico via international land ports of entry, which resulted in a more than 50% decrease in the number of people crossing the border. However, border communities still face a higher number of cases and faster community spread compared with those without international land ports of entry. This paper established an econometric model to understand the effects of cross-border mobility and other socioeconomic parameters on the speed of spread. The model was developed at the U.S. county level using data from all 3,141 counties in the U.S.A. Additionally, a follow-up U.S. county comparative analysis was developed to examine the significance of having a border crossing between the U.S.A. and Mexico for U.S. counties. The findings of the analysis revealed that the variables having a significant effect are as follows: population density; number of people per household; population in the 15-65 age group; median household income; mask use; number of visits to transit stations; number of visits to workplace; overall mobility; and having a border crossing to Mexico within county limits. The comparative analysis found that U.S. counties with border crossings have an average of 123 cases per 1,000 population whereas their counterparts without border crossings only have 90 cases per 1,000 population.

Keywords: COVID-19; border crossing; border mobility; infectious disease spread.

Figure 1.

Average daily personal vehicle passenger crossings over time.

Figure 2.

Average daily pedestrian crossings over time.

Figure 3.

Average daily bus passenger crossings over time.

Figure 4.

Case density histogram of U.S. counties without border crossings.

Figure 5.

Case density histogram of U.S. counties with border crossings.

Figure 6.

Speed of spread density histogram: (a) before log transformation and (b) after log transformation.