Risk stratification and predictive modeling of postoperative delirium in chronic subdural hematoma

Abstract

Background- Postoperative delirium is a common complication associated with the elderly, causing increased morbidity and prolonged hospital stay. However, its risk factors in chronic subdural hematoma patients have not been well studied. Methods- A total of 202 consecutive patients with chronic subdural hematoma at Peking University Third Hospital between January 2018 and January 2023 were enrolled. Various clinical indicators were analyzed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative delirium using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Delirium risk prediction models were developed as a nomogram and a Markov chain. Results- Out of the 202 patients (age, 71 (IQR, 18); female-to-male ratio, 1:2.7) studied, 63 (31.2%) experienced postoperative delirium. Univariate analysis identified age (p < 0.001), gender (p = 0.014), restraint belt use (p < 0.001), electrolyte imbalance (p < 0.001), visual analog scale score (p < 0.001), hematoma thickness (p < 0.001), midline shift (p < 0.001), hematoma side (p = 0.013), hematoma location (p = 0.018), and urinal catheterization (p = 0.028) as significant factors. Multivariate regression analysis confirmed the significance of restraint belt use (B = 7.657, p < 0.001), electrolyte imbalance (B = -3.993, p = 0.001), visual analog scale score (B = 2.331, p = 0.016), and midline shift (B = 0.335, p = 0.007). Hematoma thickness and age had no significant impact. Conclusion- Increased midline shift and visual analog scale scores, alongside restraint belt use and electrolyte imbalance elevate delirium risk in chronic subdural hematoma surgery. Our prediction models may offer reference value in this context.

Keywords: Chronic subdural hematoma; Postoperative delirium; Risk factors.