A Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

Abstract

Within two weeks from the first detection of the SARS-CoV-2 positive patient on 21 February, from Lombardy the disease has spread over every region in Italy. The main objective of this study is to identify spatial effects and spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak of COVID-19 in different regions of Italy. Spatial indicators for different periods, as Moran's I, local Moran, LISA clusters, Getis and Ord G, and scatterplots are used for this purpose. Results confirm the great presence of spatial effects as well as changes in spatial regimes between the quarantine and the easing phase. The evidence could be of help for policy-makers to a proper assessments of health strategies aware of local characteristics.

Keywords: Italian provinces; SARS‐CoV‐2; incidence rate; spatial effects; spatial statistics.

FIGURE 1

(a) Number of new cases since 24 February for regions located in the north of Italy, and (b) the regions located in the Centre of Italy. (c) Number of new cases since 24 February for regions located in the south of Italy

FIGURE 2

Regional level spatial dependency and clustering of incidence rate in phase I (a) & (b), phase II (c) & (d) and entire period (e) & (f)

FIGURE 3

(a) Quintile map of average contagion rate from 24 February to the 30 July at province level, (b) Moran scatterplot, and (c) LISA cluster map (d) hot spot and cold spot by Getis‐Ord G for the average of the total case per day from the 24 February to the 30th of July at province level

FIGURE 4

Quantile maps for or the average of the total case per day over (a) “phase‐I" and (b) “phase‐II" at province level

FIGURE 5

Global Moran and Moran scatterplot for (a) “phase‐I”, and (b) “phase‐II”, local Moran and LISA clusters for (c) “phase‐I”, (d) “phase‐II”, and hot and cold spots calculated via Getis‐Ord G for (e) “phase‐I”, (f) phase‐II

FIGURE 6

Spatial correlation of (a) HDI, and the dimensions of HDI (b) income (c) life expectancy and (d) mean year of schooling with the incidence rate of COVID‐19 during the whole period

FIGURE 7

Bivariate LISA between GDP per capita in PPS and average of total case per day at province level. elaboration made over the whole period

FIGURE A1

Ratio of number of positive cases on the total number of tests performed every day at the national level