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. 2023 Jun 24.
doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.005. Online ahead of print.

The COVID-19 green certificate's effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions

Raffaella Santolini  1
Affiliations

The COVID-19 green certificate's effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions

Raffaella Santolini. J Policy Model. .

Abstract

The COVID-19 green certificates were introduced in many countries in 2021 to encourage vaccine uptake against the COVID-19 virus in order to reduce the spread of severe infection among the population, ensure the safety of cross-border movements, and facilitate the resumption of social life and economic activities. This study uses a single-group interrupted time series approach to examine the effect of the green certificate announcement on the first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine in 20 Italian and 18 French regions during the summer of 2021. The estimation results show that the green certificate announcement mitigated regional disparities in vaccine uptake. It persuaded undecided people to have their first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, especially in regions lagging in the mass vaccination campaign. It was less effective in those regions where there was already a high level of vaccine protection. The announcement also proved to be an effective political strategy with which to increase the first-dose rates immediately, but not in the long term.

Keywords: COVID-19 green certificate; COVID-19 vaccine; French regions; Italian regions; announcement effect.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author declares that has no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
The daily COVID-19 first-dose vaccination rate (%) in Italian regions on 22 July 2021 Source: Author’s elaboration on data provided by Extraordinary Commissioner for the COVID-19 emergency - Presidency of the Council of Ministers. Data coverage: 27 December 2020-22 July 2021.
Fig 2
Fig 2
Rate of persons discharge-cured from COVID-19 (%) in Italian regions on 22 July 2021 Source: Author’s elaboration on data provided by Department of Civil Protection - Presidency of the Council of Ministers.
Fig 3
Fig 3
The daily COVID-19 first-dose vaccination rate (%) in French regions on 12 July 2021 Source: Author’s elaboration on data provided by Santé publique France - Données relatives aux personnes vaccinées contre la Covid-19. Data coverage: 1 January 2021-12 July 2021.
Fig 4
Fig 4
Rate of persons discharge-cured after a diagnosis of COVID-19 per 1,000 inhabitants in French regions on 12 July 2021 Source: Author’s elaboration on data provided by Santé Publique France, Préfectures, Agences Régionales de Santé, Ministère des Solidaritès et de la Santè - Chiffres-clés concernant l'épidémie de COVID19 en France. Data coverage: 5 April 2020 -12 July 2021.
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