Simulating the COVID19-pandemic and its impact on the semiconductor supply chain: Enabling a supply chain risk management framework

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic, in the past 2 years, has affected all aspects of life, as well as businesses with different extents. The fifth wave, pushed by the omicron variant, seems to pave way to a new course of development. In this study we present a hybrid simulation modelling approach using agent-based simulation (AB) and system dynamics (SD). This hybrid model is used to evaluate the pandemic dynamics and its impact on the supply chain (SC) of a semiconductor company. We modelled the infection waves, governmental stringency values, and their impact on demand for several semiconductor applications. Additionally, we simulated vaccination, mutation factors and other recent developments of the pandemic. The results of the epidemiological model show that while the COVID-19 evolved in multiple waves, government restrictions and vaccinations are keys to control the spread of the virus. Moreover, the possible endemic nature of the pandemic fuels the importance of the continuation of our work, as this work will be the backbone of a SC risk management framework: resilient SCs need to be equipped with mitigation measures, to face future challenges. The results of the SC model suggest that mitigation of the COVID-19 disruption could be achieved by having high inventory and/or high global flexibility capacities.

Keywords: COVID-19; Simulation modelling; semiconductor supply chain; supply chain; supply chain disruption; system dynamics.