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. 2024 Apr 19;14(1):9008.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-59516-3.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival of elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer who received chemotherapy

Qi Wang  1 , Kexin Shen  1 , Bingyuan Fei  1 , Mengqiang Wei  1 , Xinbin Ge  1 , Zhongshi Xie  2
Affiliations

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival of elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer who received chemotherapy

Qi Wang et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

This investigation aimed to explore the prognostic factors in elderly patients with unresected gastric cancer (GC) who have received chemotherapy and to develop a nomogram for predicting their cancer-specific survival (CSS). Elderly gastric cancer patients who have received chemotherapy but no surgery in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database between 2004 and 2015 were included in this study. Cox analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors, leading to the formulation of a nomogram. The nomogram was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. The findings elucidated six prognostic factors encompassing grade, histology, M stage, radiotherapy, tumor size, and T stage, culminating in the development of a nomogram. The ROC curve indicated that the area under curve of the nomogram used to predict CSS for 3, 4, and 5 years in the training queue as 0.689, 0.708, and 0.731, and in the validation queue, as 0.666, 0.693, and 0.708. The calibration curve indicated a high degree of consistency between actual and predicted CSS for 3, 4, and 5 years. This nomogram created to predict the CSS of elderly patients with unresected GC who have received chemotherapy could significantly enhance treatment accuracy.

Keywords: Chemotherapy; Elderly patients; Gastric cancer; Nomogram; SEER database.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The patient’s selection process and other crucial steps taken throughout this study.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Prognostic nomogram for predicting 36-, 48- and 60 months CS in non-operated EGC patients who have undergone chemotherapy.
Figure 3
Figure 3
ROC curve of the prognostic nomogram for 36, 48, and 60 months in the training cohort (A) and the validation cohort (B).
Figure 4
Figure 4
The calibration curves of the prognostic nomogram for the 3 years, 4 years, and 5 years in the training cohort (A–C) and in the validation cohort (D–F).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Kaplan–Meier survival curves of three subgroups in the training cohort (A) and validation cohort (B).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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