Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Background: To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods: Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline.

Conclusion: Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.

Keywords: Cross-national inequalities; Global burden of disease; Joinpoint analysis; Older adult; Pancreatitis.

Fig. 1

The AAPC of ASR burden for pancreatitis in older adults from 1990 to 2019 in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions by sex. A AAPC of ASDR in pancreatitis; B AAPC of age-standardized DALY rate in pancreatitis. AAPC average annual percentage change, ASR age-standardized rate; GBD Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study; SDI socio-demographic index; ASDR age-standardized death rate.

Fig. 2

The global disease burden of pancreatitis in older adults consumption for both genders in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. A AAPC of ASDR for pancreatitis; B AAPC of age-standardized DALY rate for pancreatitis. AAPC average annual percentage change; DALYs disability-adjusted life-years; ASDR age-standardized death rate.

Fig. 3

The death and DALY rate of pancreatitis in older adults in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions in 2019 by age group and sex. A The death rate of pancreatitis in older adults; B The DALY rate of pancreatitis in older adults. The first column represents the 65–74 age group; the second column represents the 75–84 age group; the third column represents the 85 + age group. SDI socio-demographic index; GBD Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study; DALYs disability-adjusted life-years.

Fig. 4

Health inequality regression curves and concentration curves for the DALYs of pancreatitis in older adults worldwide, 1990 and 2019. A Slopes index of pancreatitis in older adults globally, 1990 and 2019; B Health concentration index of pancreatitis in older adults globally, 1990 and 2019. The slope index of inequality, shown as the slope of the regression line, represents the absolute difference in pancreatitis in older adults burden between countries or territories with the highest and lowest SDI. Concentration curves (Lorenz curves) graphed by plotting the cumulative fraction of population ranked by SDI (x-axis) against the cumulative fraction of pancreatitis in older adults burden ranked by age-standardised DALY (y-axis). The concentration index, calculated as twice the area between the 45° diagonal line and the Lorenz curve, representing the relative extent to which the pancreatitis in older adults burden is concentrated among the poor (negative value) or the rich (positive value). Dots representing countries or territories, with different sizes representing the population sizes. DALYs disability-adjusted life-years; SDI socio-demographic index.

Fig. 5

The observation and prediction of the number of deaths and mortality from pancreatitis in older adults from 1990 to 2030. Each lines represent death/ DALY rates for age group, and each bars represent the number of deaths/DALYs. DALYs disability-adjusted life-years.