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. 2024 Jul 1;79(7):gbae071.
doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbae071.

Pain Lowers Subjective Survival Probabilities Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Gillian Fennell  1 , Margarita Osuna  1 , Jennifer Ailshire  1 , Anna Zajacova  2
Affiliations

Pain Lowers Subjective Survival Probabilities Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Gillian Fennell et al. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. .

Abstract

Objectives: Pain is a leading cause of disability and a limiting factor in individuals' assessments of their own subjective health; however, its association with subjective longevity has yet to be explored. Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs), or one's own perceived chances of living to a given age, can influence individuals' behavior as they plan for their futures. This study assesses whether pain correlates to lower SSPs.

Methods: We use a repeated cross-section of the 2000-2018 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal and nationally representative survey of Americans aged 51 and older (N = 31,773).

Results: Fractional logit regressions indicate that, across all age groups, respondents with severe and/or interfering pain reported significantly lower SSPs than those with no pain (Marginal Effect [ME] = -0.03 to -0.06, p < .05). Controlling for all covariates, mild or moderate noninterfering pain was only associated with a significant reduction in SSPs among the youngest group reporting their chances of living to age 75 (ME = -0.02, p < .001). Descriptively and in the model results, respondents with mild or moderate noninterfering pain appeared to more closely resemble pain-free respondents than those with severe or interfering pain.

Discussion: These findings highlight the importance of pain on SSPs, and contribute to the growing evidence that pain interference is uniquely important in predicting meaningful health outcomes.

Keywords: Disability; Interference; Subjective life expectancy.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Mean predicted values of subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) by pain category in fully adjusted models stratified by target age. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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