Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (P < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (P < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as Y = 25.76 - 1.030X ₁ + 0.725X ₂ + 0.922X ₃ - 0.750X ₄ - 0.57X ₆, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures.

Keywords: emergency trauma; influencing factors; predictive model; spontaneous hypothermia.

Figure 1

Composition of injury types.

Figure 2

Distribution of trauma severity.

Figure 3

ROC curve for predicting spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma.