Life expectancy gains from dietary modifications: a comparative modeling study in 7 countries

Abstract

Background: Eating healthier is associated with a range of favorable health outcomes. Our previous model estimated the impact of dietary changes on life expectancy gains but did not consider height, weight, or physical activity.

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the increase in life expectancy resulting from the transition from typical national dietary patterns to longevity-optimizing dietary changes, more feasible dietary modifications, and optimized vegan dietary changes in China, France, Germany, Iran, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Methods: Our modeling study used data from meta-analyses presenting dose-response relationships between intake of 15 food groups and mortality. Background mortality data were from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used national food intake data and adjusted for height, weight, and physical activity level.

Results: For 40-y-olds, estimated life expectancy gains ranged from 6.2 y (with uncertainty interval [UI]: 5.7, 7.5 y) for Chinese females to 9.7 y (UI: 8.1, 11.3 y) for United States males following sustained changes from typical country-specific dietary patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, and from 5.2 y (UI: 4.0, 6.5 y) for Chinese females to 8.7 y (UI: 7.1, 10.3 y) for United States males following changes to optimized vegan dietary changes.

Conclusions: A sustained change from country-specific typical dietary pattern patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, more feasible dietary changes, or optimized vegan dietary changes are all projected to result in substantial life expectancy gains across ages and countries. These changes included more whole grains, legumes, and nuts and less red/processed meats and sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages. The largest gains from dietary changes would be in the United States.

Keywords: diets; food groups; life expectancy; longevity; mortality.