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. 2024 Jun;25(6):779-789.
doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(24)00142-6. Epub 2024 Apr 30.

Prognostic impact and causality of age on oncological outcomes in women with endometrial cancer: a multimethod analysis of the randomised PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials

Famke C Wakkerman  1 , Jiqing Wu  2 , Hein Putter  3 , Ina M Jürgenliemk-Schulz  4 , Jan J Jobsen  5 , Ludy C H W Lutgens  6 , Marie A D Haverkort  7 , Marianne A de Jong  8 , Jan Willem M Mens  9 , Bastiaan G Wortman  1 , Remi A Nout  9 , Alicia Léon-Castillo  10 , Melanie E Powell  11 , Linda R Mileshkin  12 , Dionyssios Katsaros  13 , Joanne Alfieri  14 , Alexandra Leary  15 , Naveena Singh  16 , Stephanie M de Boer  1 , Hans W Nijman  17 , Vincent T H B M Smit  10 , Tjalling Bosse  10 , Viktor H Koelzer  18 , Carien L Creutzberg  1 , Nanda Horeweg  19
Affiliations

Prognostic impact and causality of age on oncological outcomes in women with endometrial cancer: a multimethod analysis of the randomised PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials

Famke C Wakkerman et al. Lancet Oncol. 2024 Jun.

Abstract

Background: Numerous studies have shown that older women with endometrial cancer have a higher risk of recurrence and cancer-related death. However, it remains unclear whether older age is a causal prognostic factor, or whether other risk factors become increasingly common with age. We aimed to address this question with a unique multimethod study design using state-of-the-art statistical and causal inference techniques on datasets of three large, randomised trials.

Methods: In this multimethod analysis, data from 1801 women participating in the randomised PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials were used for statistical analyses and causal inference. The cohort included 714 patients with intermediate-risk endometrial cancer, 427 patients with high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer, and 660 patients with high-risk endometrial cancer. Associations of age with clinicopathological and molecular features were analysed using non-parametric tests. Multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic value of age. To analyse age as a causal prognostic variable, a deep learning causal inference model called AutoCI was used.

Findings: Median follow-up as estimated using the reversed Kaplan-Meier method was 12·3 years (95% CI 11·9-12·6) for PORTEC-1, 10·5 years (10·2-10·7) for PORTEC-2, and 6·1 years (5·9-6·3) for PORTEC-3. Both overall recurrence and endometrial cancer-specific death significantly increased with age. Moreover, older women had a higher frequency of deep myometrial invasion, serous tumour histology, and p53-abnormal tumours. Age was an independent risk factor for both overall recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1·02 per year, 95% CI 1·01-1·04; p=0·0012) and endometrial cancer-specific death (HR 1·03 per year, 1·01-1·05; p=0·0012) and was identified as a significant causal variable.

Interpretation: This study showed that advanced age was associated with more aggressive tumour features in women with endometrial cancer, and was independently and causally related to worse oncological outcomes. Therefore, our findings suggest that older women with endometrial cancer should not be excluded from diagnostic assessments, molecular testing, and adjuvant therapy based on their age alone.

Funding: None.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests JW is supported by core funding of the University of Zurich to the Computational and Translational Pathology Lab led by VHK at the Department of Pathology and Molecular Pathology, University Hospital and University of Zurich. RAN has received grants (to institution) from the Dutch Cancer Society, Dutch Research Council, Elekta, Varian, and Accuray; payment or honoraria (to institution) for lectures and presentations from Elekta; and is chair of the Dutch Gynecological Oncology Group. AL-C declares having received payment or honoraria for multiple lectures and presentations. AL has received a PhD student grant from AstraZeneca; honoraria (to institution) for presentations from GSK, AstraZeneca, and MSD; support for attending meetings from OSEimmuno, AstraZeneca, and MSD; and honoraria (to institution) for participation on Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board from Genmab, AstraZeneca, MSD, and GSK. NS declares having received personal payment for participation in Advisory Boards of Astra-Zeneca–MSD and Glaxo-SmithKline. HWN has received grants or contracts (to institution) from Merck and the Dutch Cancer Society. VHK receives funding by the University of Zurich; has acted as an invited speaker for Sharing Progress in Cancer Care (SPCC) and holds sponsored research agreements with Roche and IAG unrelated to the content of this study; has served as an invited speaker on behalf of Indica Labs unrelated to the content of this study; is on an advisory board of Takeda (unrelated to the content of this study); and is a member of the European Key Opinion Leader Network in Digital Pathology supported by Roche. CLC has received clinical trial grants for the PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials (to institution) from the Dutch Cancer Society. NH has received unrestricted research grants (to institution) from the Dutch Cancer Society; personal payment for an educational lecture for specialist nurses in oncology (V&VN), unrelated to the current work; has a patent on a deep learning algorithm on endometrial cancer, unrelated to the current work; and is a member of a Data Safety Monitoring Board of the Apollo study (EudraCT number: 2022-002500-21). All other authors declare no competing interests.

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