The predictive value of serum tumor markers for EGFR mutation in non-small cell lung cancer patients with non-stage IA
- PMID: 38707478
- PMCID: PMC11066585
- DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29605
The predictive value of serum tumor markers for EGFR mutation in non-small cell lung cancer patients with non-stage IA
Abstract
Objective: The predictive value of serum tumor markers (STMs) in assessing epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), particularly those with non-stage IA, remains poorly understood. The objective of this study is to construct a predictive model comprising STMs and additional clinical characteristics, aiming to achieve precise prediction of EGFR mutations through noninvasive means.
Materials and methods: We retrospectively collected 6711 NSCLC patients who underwent EGFR gene testing. Ultimately, 3221 stage IA patients and 1442 non-stage IA patients were analyzed to evaluate the potential predictive value of several clinical characteristics and STMs for EGFR mutations.
Results: EGFR mutations were detected in 3866 patients (57.9 %) of all NSCLC patients. None of the STMs emerged as significant predictor for predicting EGFR mutations in stage IA patients. Patients with non-stage IA were divided into the study group (n = 1043) and validation group (n = 399). In the study group, univariate analysis revealed significant associations between EGFR mutations and the STMs (carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC), and cytokeratin-19 fragment (CYFRA21-1)). The nomogram incorporating CEA, CYFRA 21-1, pathology, gender, and smoking history for predicting EGFR mutations with non-stage IA was constructed using the results of multivariate analysis. The area under the curve (AUC = 0.780) and decision curve analysis demonstrated favorable predictive performance and clinical utility of nomogram. Additionally, the Random Forest model also demonstrated the highest average C-index of 0.793 among the eight machine learning algorithms, showcasing superior predictive efficiency.
Conclusion: CYFRA21-1 and CEA have been identified as crucial factors for predicting EGFR mutations in non-stage IA NSCLC patients. The nomogram and 8 machine learning models that combined STMs with other clinical factors could effectively predict the probability of EGFR mutations.
Keywords: Epidermal growth factor receptor; Lung cancer; Machine learning; Nomogram model; Serum tumor markers.
© 2024 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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