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. 2024 May 6;14(1):10330.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61200-5.

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Lijuan Wei #  1 , Guohai Wang #  2 , Chunping Xie  3 , Zequn Gao  2 , Qinying Huang  2 , C Y Jim  4
Affiliations

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Lijuan Wei et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

Keywords: Ormosia microphylla; Climate change; Conservation measure; MaxEnt model; Species distribution model (SDM); Suitable area.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The locations of 45 verified current occurrence points of O. microphylla (white circles) in central and south China with reference to elevation. The map was prepared by Lijuan Wei, Guohai Wang and Chunping Xie in QGIS 3.34.0 (https://www.qgis.org/en/site/).
Figure 2
Figure 2
The validation of the MaxEnt model predicting O. microphylla distribution: (a) Omission rate; and (b) ROC curve.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The jackknife test for evaluating the relative importance of environmental variables for O. microphylla.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Response curves of the environmental variables to distribution probability.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The predicted O. microphylla distribution range classified into five suitability categories obtained by MaxEnt modeling. The map was prepared by Lijuan Wei, Guohai Wang and Chunping Xie in QGIS 3.34.0 (https://www.qgis.org/en/site/).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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