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. 2024 Jun:104:105134.
doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105134. Epub 2024 May 7.

A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

Anna Vicco  1 , Clare McCormack  2 , Belen Pedrique  3 , Isabela Ribeiro  3 , Gathsaurie Neelika Malavige  3 , Ilaria Dorigatti  4
Affiliations

A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

Anna Vicco et al. EBioMedicine. 2024 Jun.

Abstract

Background: Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.

Methods: This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.

Findings: We found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world.

Interpretation: The results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.

Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.

Keywords: Age of first infection; Antibodies; Catalytic models; Dengue transmission intensity; Endemic transmission.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests ID declares consultancy work for the WHO, all the other authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
PRISMA chart of the literature search. Literature review on dengue age-stratified seroprevalence studies published from 2014 to the end of October 2023 in Embase, Medline and Web of Science using the word search “dengue AND sero∗ AND (prevalence OR seroprevalence OR positiv∗ OR seropositiv∗).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Location and year of published dengue seroprevalence studies. Panel A: location of published age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data, as identified in Imai et al. (green) and in this literature review (purple). Panel B: number of age-stratified dengue serosurveys per year as identified in Imai et al. (green) and in this literature review (purple) by year of the serosurvey. Panel C: number of age-stratified dengue serosurveys by serosurvey year and continent (in colour).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
FOI estimates obtained in this study, grouped by country and using the best fitting model. The x-axis shows the year of the serological survey and the y-axis shows the median (point) and 95% CrI (line) of the FOI estimates. Different locations within the same country are presented in different colours.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Worldwide distribution and geolocation of the average force of infection (FOI) estimates obtained in this study. Average FOI estimates obtained using the best model according to the DIC criterion, as summarized in Table 1.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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