A Geospatial Analysis of the Availability, Distribution, and Accessibility of Neurosurgical Facilities, Workforce, and Infrastructure in Nigeria; and Projection Towards 2050

Abstract

Objective: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050.

Methods: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050.

Results: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes.

Conclusions: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes.

Keywords: Capacity-building; Geospatial analysis; Neurosurgery; Nigeria; Projection modeling; Service delivery; Timely access; Workforce.