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Review
. 2024 Jul;9(7):e495-e522.
doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0. Epub 2024 May 12.

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Kim R van Daalen  1 , Cathryn Tonne  2 , Jan C Semenza  3 , Joacim Rocklöv  4 , Anil Markandya  5 , Niheer Dasandi  6 , Slava Jankin  6 , Hicham Achebak  7 , Joan Ballester  8 , Hannah Bechara  9 , Thessa M Beck  10 , Max W Callaghan  11 , Bruno M Carvalho  12 , Jonathan Chambers  13 , Marta Cirah Pradas  2 , Orin Courtenay  14 , Shouro Dasgupta  15 , Matthew J Eckelman  16 , Zia Farooq  17 , Peter Fransson  18 , Elisa Gallo  8 , Olga Gasparyan  19 , Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego  20 , Ian Hamilton  21 , Risto Hänninen  22 , Charles Hatfield  23 , Kehan He  24 , Aleksandra Kazmierczak  25 , Vladimir Kendrovski  26 , Harry Kennard  27 , Gregor Kiesewetter  28 , Rostislav Kouznetsov  22 , Hedi Katre Kriit  18 , Alba Llabrés-Brustenga  12 , Simon J Lloyd  8 , Martín Lotto Batista  29 , Carla Maia  30 , Jaime Martinez-Urtaza  31 , Zhifu Mi  24 , Carles Milà  10 , Jan C Minx  11 , Mark Nieuwenhuijsen  2 , Julia Palamarchuk  22 , Dafni Kalatzi Pantera  32 , Marcos Quijal-Zamorano  10 , Peter Rafaj  28 , Elizabeth J Z Robinson  33 , Nacho Sánchez-Valdivia  8 , Daniel Scamman  34 , Oliver Schmoll  26 , Maquins Odhiambo Sewe  17 , Jodi D Sherman  35 , Pratik Singh  3 , Elena Sirotkina  36 , Henrik Sjödin  37 , Mikhail Sofiev  22 , Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali  12 , Marco Springmann  38 , Marina Treskova  4 , Joaquin Triñanes  39 , Eline Vanuytrecht  25 , Fabian Wagner  24 , Maria Walawender  40 , Laura Warnecke  41 , Ran Zhang  42 , Marina Romanello  40 , Josep M Antó  2 , Maria Nilsson  43 , Rachel Lowe  44
Affiliations
Review

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Kim R van Daalen et al. Lancet Public Health. 2024 Jul.

Erratum in

No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests VK and OS are staff members of the WHO Regional Office for Europe. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of WHO. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WHO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there might not yet be full agreement. AK and EV are staff members of the European Environment Agency. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and its content does not necessarily represent the views or position of the European Environment Agency. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Heat and health in Europe (A) Mean annual risky hours per person for physical-activity-related heat stress (activities of medium intensity) per European subregion by time of the day for three time periods (1990–2000, 2001–11, and 2012–22). The outer grey circle shows the time of the day on a 24-hour clock, with inner grey circles showing the number of risky hours. (B) Change in heat-related mortality rate expressed as the number of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants between 2003–12 and 2013–22 for men and (C) for women. (D) Changes in the likelihood of extreme heat-related mortality episodes due to anthropogenic warming, expressed as a ratio between the probability in the recent 2003–22 period and the pre-industrial period (1850–1900).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Wildfire danger and smoke (A) Annual average population-weighted wildfire-PM2·5 exposure (2003–22) and (B) wildfire danger according to the Canadian forest FWI (1980–2022) by European subregion, including a linear trend (dashed) during 2003–22. None of the wildfire-PM2·5 trends were statistically significant (p>0·05), while the wildfire danger FWI trends for eastern, southern, and western Europe were significant (p≤0·02). (C) Linear trends in annual average population-weighted wildfire-PM2.5 (2003–22), and (D) fire risk according to FWI (1980–2022) at country level. Dots indicate the statistical significance of the trend coefficient and colour the European subregion. FWI=Fire Weather Index.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Climatic suitability for West Nile virus, dengue, Leishmania infantum, and Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe (A) West Nile virus outbreak risk by European subregion between 1950–2022, calculated at the NUTS3 level. Bars represent the number of NUTS3 regions reporting West Nile virus transmission for each subregion (2010–22). (B) Estimated reproduction number (R0) for dengue by European subregion over 1951–2020. The black line shows the estimated number of yearly dengue cases imported from dengue-endemic regions to transmission suitable NUTS3 regions in Europe (1995–2019). (C) Climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum by NUTS3 regions. Pink-shaded areas represent suitability change between 2001–10 and 2011–20. Blue borders represent countries that are currently considered endemic for leishmaniasis. (D) Absolute change in the mean number of months with optimal climatic conditions for Ixodes ricinus nymph feeding activity comparing 1951–60 and 2013–22.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Difference between decadal medians in the SPIn in Europe Difference between decadal medians in the SPIn (pollen per day per m3) for (A) alder, (B) birch, and (C) olive trees in Europe at NUTS2 level, comparing 2013–22 with 1990–99. Dot-shaded areas do have not statistically significant trends (p>0·1). Dot-free areas had clinically relevant seasons that occurred less than five times between 1990–99 and 2013–22. SPIn=seasonal pollen integral.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Premature mortality attributable to ambient fine particles in Europe Factors (structural changes, fuel switches, and end-of-pipe controls) contributing to mortality (annual attributable deaths per 100 000 people) due to PM2·5 by region and economic sector (power plants, transport, and households), calculated in 5-year steps. This indicator uses the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model to combine bottom-up emission calculations with atmospheric chemistry and dispersion coefficients using mortality data (Eurostat and UN World Population Prospects 2017), energy consumption by fuel and sector data (Eurostat and IEA energy statistics), agricultural activity data (FAOSTAT), and fertiliser use data (IFASTAT).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Health-care sector emissions in Europe National greenhouse gas emissions per person (kg CO2e per person) from the health-care sector against the healthy life expectancy at birth in 2020 (World Bank) by European subregions. Point size is defined by the size of the population.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Economic impacts of climate change in Europe (A) Change in high-exposure labour supply (%) in Europe due to temperature change; counterfactual analysis for each time-period compared with the long-term mean of 1965–94. (B) Percentage change in the number of working hours (weighted by total number of working hours in 2020) due to change in temperature compared with the baseline period of 1965–94.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Engagement with climate change and health in science, politics, and the corporate sector in Europe (A) Numbers of scientific publications on the nexus of climate change and health between 1990 and 2022, grouped by publications focusing on mitigation, adaptation, or impact. (B) Total number of references to health, climate change, and their intersection by country in the European Parliament between 2014 and 2022. (C) The proportion of companies by sector that mention health, climate change, and their intersection in the companies' Global Compact Communication on Progress reports in 2022. Sectors with less than ten data points are excluded from the plot.
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References

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